نوع مقاله : مقاله علمی- پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 دانشآموخته کارشناسی ارشد مدیریت دولتی گرایش خطمشیگذاریعمومی دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران.
2 دکتری آیندهپژوهی دانشگاه تهران و عضو هیاتعلمی دانشگاه عالی دفاع ملی، تهران، ایران.
چکیده
کلیدواژهها
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسندگان [English]
Considering the developments that have occurred in the concept of defense and security in recent decades, there is a need to review the country's defense patterns, especially in the field of public and specialized conscription service. The purpose of this study was to study the future of specialized conscription service based on scenario approach using the capacities of science, technology and innovation ecosystem. The type of research is based on a qualitative approach and the scenario method has been used. The target of study is students and graduates in specialized service process and the analysis is based on descriptive statistical methods and validity and reliability are considered in the framework of qualitative studies. In future scenario planning with emphasis on the three-year horizon, two uncertainties in "bureaucratic transformation of services" and "Services diversity" were identified, which led to the development of four scenarios: gradual reform of research services, systemic transformation of research services, Limited development of scientific services and systemic transformation of various scientific services. Beyond the short-term scenarios, a variety of research-oriented, technology-oriented, entrepreneurship and social activism services have been proposed and the findings show that moving towards a knowledge-based ecosystem will lead to a fundamental transformation in this field.
کلیدواژهها [English]
Paul A. Gade. Hyder Lakhani & Melvin Kimmel. (1991). Military Service: A Good Place to Start?, Military Psychology. 3(4): 251-267.