ارائه چارچوب آینده‌نگاری شرکتی مبتنی بر سناریوپردازی در راستای ارتقای مدیریت نوآوری (مورد مطالعه: صنایع هوا و فضا)

نوع مقاله : مقاله علمی- پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 گروه آینده پژوهی، دانشکده میدیریت،‌دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران

2 گروه آینده پژوهی، دانشکده مدیریت، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران

3 گروه مدیریت دولتی، دانشکده مدیریت، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران

4 دانشکده علوم انسانی، دانشگاه شاهد، تهران، ایران

چکیده

شواهد عینی پژوهش‌های حوزه‌های گوناگون نشان می‌دهد که شرکت‌ها هنوز از کمبود چارچوبی جهت مواجهه با شرایط ابهام‌آمیز و پیچیده آینده در حوزه‌های مختلف و اطمینان از دریافت همه تغییرات خارجی مرتبط و ارائه پاسخهای متناسب در مخاطره هستند. در این میان شرکت‌ها برای توسعه و گسترش نوآوری‌های خود در راستای خلق ارزش و ثروت تلاش می‌کنند. یکی از روش‌های نوین و توانمند برای شرکت‌ها در این شرایط، آینده‌نگاری شرکتی است که فرایند مدیریت نوآوری را بهبود و توسعه می‎‌دهد. از‌این‌رو پژوهش حاضر برآن است تا ظرفیت‌ها و پتانسیل‌های آینده‌نگاری شرکتی را در راستای ارتقا و بهبود مدیریت نوآوری به‌کار برد. در این میان از ظرفیت‌های روش سناریوپردازی نیز بهره می‌برد. فرایند پژوهش ترکیبی از روش کمی تحلیل معادلات ساختاری که تاثیرات آینده‌نگاری شرکتی بر مدیریت نوآوری را بررسی می‌کند و روش کیفی در طی یک فراگرد فرایندی با بازخورد رجوع به خبرگان و تحلیل محتوا است. در بخش کمی بعد از حصول روایی مدل مفهومی تاثیرات آینده‌نگاری شرکتی بر مدیریت نوآوری بدست آمده از تحلیل ادبیات توسط خبرگان این حوزه، صنایع هوا و فضا به عنوان مطالعه موردی قرار گرفت و پس از جمع‌آوری پرسشنامه‌ها، با استفاده از نرم‌افزار SmartPLS فرضیه‌های پژوهش آزمون شدند. در تحلیل کیفی در هر کدام از مراحل مصاحبه‌های عمیق نیمه‌ساختاریافته با خبرگان و تحلیل محتوا در راستای نیل به شاخص‌ها و مولفه‌های چارچوب مدنظر، پژوهشگران می‌توانستند به مرحله یا مراحل قبل بازگشته و در مسیر پیش رو تجدید نظر کنند. یافته‌های پژوهش شامل مولفه‌های تاثیرگذار آینده‌نگاری شرکتی بر مدیریت نوآوری در بخش کمی و در امتداد آن ارایه چارچوب آینده‌نگاری شرکتی در راستای توسعه و بهبود مدیریت نوآوری و سپس توسعه چارچوب آینده‌نگاری شرکتی مبتنی بر سناریوپردازی در راستای ارتقای مدیریت نوآوری است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Introducing a Corporate Foresight Framework Based on Scenario Planning for Applications in Innovation Management In High Technology defense industry

نویسندگان [English]

  • Mohsen Keshavarz Turk 1
  • Seyed Mohammad Moghimi 2
  • Mohammad Abooyee Ardakan 3
  • Mohammad Rahim Eivazi 4
1 Futures Studies, Faculty of Management, University of Tehran, Tehran, iran
2 Futures Studies, Faculty of Management, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran
3 Government Management, Faculty of Management, University of Tehran. Tehran, Iran
4 Humanity faculty, Shahed University, Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

The objective evidence of research in various domains shows that companies are in danger because of lack of a framework to address the ambiguous and complex situations of the future. Meanwhile, corporate foresight is trying to respond to this need. In this situation, companies are working to develop their innovations in order to create value and wealth. One of the new and powerful tools and methods for companies in this way is corporate foresight that improves and develops the innovation management process. The present study seeks to explore the capabilities and potentials of corporate foresight in order to improve and promote innovation management. In the meantime, it utilizes the appropriateness and capabilities of the scenario methodology. The research findings combine a quantitative analysis of structural equations that examine the effects of corporate foresight on innovation management with the qualitative method through a feedback process, referral to experts and content analysis. It is worth mentioning in the qualitative analysis that researchers could return to the previous stage or stages and review the course ahead in each of the semi-structured in-depth interviews with experts and content analysis them in order to achieve the indicators and components of the framework. Research findings include effective factors of corporate foresight on innovation management in the quantitative part and, along with this, provide a corporate foresight framework for the development and improvement of innovation management, and then the development of corporate foresight framework which is based on scenario for improving innovation management.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Corporate Foresight
  • Scenario Planning
  • innovation management
  • Framework

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