آیندهنگاری فناوری فرآیندی پیچیده و شدیداً وابسته به ساختارهای بومی است. هدف کلی آیندهنگاری فناوری، عام نوظهوری است که ممکن است منافع اقتصادی, دفاعی و اجتماعی زیادی را دربر داشته باشند. ماهیت جنگ در حال تغییر و تحول بوده و سرعت این تغییر از هر زمان دیگری در تاریخ معاصر بیشتر است. نیروی زمینی قرن بیست و یکم برای آن که بتواند در بالاترین سطح ممکن به سرعت استراتژیکی و برتری مانور دست پیدا کند، بایستی از طریق فناوری‌های رزم زمینی تاثیرات مربوط به آگاهی از فضای صحنه نبرد و آتش و مانور دقیق را به طور هم زمان مورد استفاده قرار دهد. هنگامی که این تغییرات به طور کامل با هم تلفیق گردند، هم افزایی حاصل از این قابلیت‌های مختلف موجب می‌شود که نیروی زمینی در میادین جنگ آینده به عامل مهمی در تصمیم گیری‌های ملی تبدیل شود. آینده-نگاری فناوری‌های دفاعی مورد نیاز در جنگ آینده، ابزاری است، که به فرماندهان و مدیران ارشد در ایجاد درک راهبردی از فناوری، به منظور اخذ تصمیمات کلان کمک می‌کند. این مقاله با هدف شناسایی فناور‌های مورد نیاز نیروی زمینی در جنگ آینده به روش دلفی تهیه گردیده است. مبانی نظری پژوهش حاضر در جنگ آینده از نظریات هافمن و کیلکولِن و در شناسایی فناوری از نظریات ون‌ویک و فال تأثیر گرفته است. در ادامه از نظرات خبرگی اساتید دانشگاه در حوزه‌های دفاعی، صنعت و فناوری بهره‌برداری، و داده‌های حاصله به روش آمیخته تجزیه و تحلیل و در نهایت فناروری‌های شناسایی شده ارائه گردید.
The Foresight of Ground combat technology in future wars
نویسندگان [English]
hossein valivandzamani1؛ Hosein Minaee2
1Department Professor
چکیده [English]
Technology prognosis is a complex and highly dependent on native structures. The general purpose of technology foresight is a new science that may have many economic, defense and social benefits. The nature of the war is changing and its pace is greater than ever in contemporary history. The 21st-century ground force, in order to be able to attain the highest possible level of strategic and superior maneuverability, should use the ground combat technologies to simultaneously exploit the effects of battlefield, fire and precision maneuvering space awareness. When these changes are fully integrated, the synergy resulting from these various capabilities will make the ground forces in the future battlefields an important factor in national decision making. The Foresight of defensive technologies needed in future wars are a tool that will help senior executives and leaders create a strategic conception of technology for making big decisions. This paper was designed to identify the technology needed by the ground forces in future wars, using the Delphi method. Theoretical foundations of the current research in future wars are based on the Hoffman and Kilcullen theories and in the identification of technology are based on the ideas of Wenwick and Fall; then the views of university professors in the fields of defense, industry and technology were exploited, and the data were analyzed by mixed method. Finally, the identified techniques were presented.
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