عنوان مقاله [English]
The Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei (as), has summarized the plans of global arrogance against the Iranian nation in three sentences: first: psychological warfare, second: economic warfare, and third: countering scientific progress and authority; Accordingly, the purpose of this study is to formulate possible scenarios of enemy psychological operations against human capital. The present research is an applied research in terms of purpose and a part of future exploratory research in terms of method, which has been done by screenwriting method. In this study, preliminary data were collected using literature review and expert meetings. Utilizing the expertise of experts from among the multitude of factors and impulses affecting psychological operations against AJA; Identification and framework of scenarios are explained. The statistical population of the study was a leadership group of 10 talented people and a group of experts with a talented 6 people collaborated in developing the scenarios. Using Peter Schwartz's model framework and Roland Berger quantification methods, based on the ranking of key factors and drivers identified based on importance and uncertainty by experts, finally two factors of cohesion between the army and the armed forces (General Staff, IRGC) , NAJA and the Ministry of Defense), creating disruption in religious, revolutionary and national beliefs (de-identification) gained a higher rank, which, being placed in the axes of a matrix, formed the basis for the formation of four scenarios with the titles; Divisiveness, defeat of will, absorption and transformation, deception and sedition.
Pourezzat, A. S. Moghadam, M. H. Sani jlal, M. & Taheriattar, G. (2018).The Future of Governance in Iran. Emerald Publishing, 175-89.