ژرف‌اندیشی در آینده‌نگاری باز: رویکردی جدید برای ساختن آینده

نوع مقاله : مقاله علمی- پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری مدیریت صنعتی، واحد قزوین، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، قزوین، ایران.

2 استادیار گروه مدیریت صنعتی، واحد علوم و تحقیقات، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران.

3 دانشیار گروه مدیریت صنعتی، واحد قزوین، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، قزوین، ایران

چکیده

موج چهارم آینده‌نگاری شرکتی که به‌اصطلاح آینده‌نگاری باز نامیده می‌­شود؛ رویکردی است که از طریق تعاملات گسترده اجتماعی و تسهیم دانش ذینفعان داخلی و خارجی، به دنبال درک، پیش‌بینی و شکل بخشیدن به تغییرات آینده است؛ با این‌­حال، ادبیات آینده‌نگاری باز هنوز در مرحله توسعه نظریه قرار دارد؛ بنابراین هدف این مقاله تعمُق شناخت و درک ماهیت آینده‌نگاری باز در قالب سه محور چرایی، چیستی و چگونگی است. این پژوهش با مرور نظام‌مند ادبیات و خلاصه‌­سازی مقاله­‌های نمایه شده در پایگاه‌های علمی معتبر بین‌المللی در بازه­ی زمانی (2020-2000) انجام ‌شده است. یافته‌­های پژوهش نشان می‌­دهد که چرایی آینده‌نگاری باز در قالب دو مقوله­‌ی محرک­‌های محیطی و دیدگاه‌­های نظری حمایت‌­کننده، تبیین می‌شود. تفکر خارج از چارچوب، هم‌افزایی منابع، جذب دانش خارجی، مدیریت دانش همکارانه، الهام‌­بخشی از نوآوری باز و چشم‌انداز باز نمایانگر چیستی آینده­‌نگاری باز هستند. فرایند اجرایی آینده‌نگاری باز شامل سه مرحله قبل، حین و پسا آینده‌نگاری و مستلزم پیش‌شرط­‌های فردی، تیمی و سازمانی است؛ علاوه بر این، برای اعتمادسازی، تسهیل جریان اطلاعاتی، هماهنگی و ارزیابی برنامه‌­ها، نقش راهبرد­پرداز مهم است. این پژوهش با مرور نظام‌مند ادبیات، بینشی عمیق از چیستی، چرایی و چگونگی آینده‌نگاری باز ارائه می­‌دهد که ضمن توسعه نظریه آینده‌نگاری باز، دریچه‌ای جدید برای پژوهشگران می‌گشاید.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Deep thinking in the open foresight: a new approach for building the future

نویسندگان [English]

  • Rasool Rezaei 1
  • Hessam Zandhessami 2
  • Ali Mohtashami 3
1 Ph.D. student of Industrial Management, Qazvin Branch, Islamic Azad University, Qazvin, Iran.
2 Assistant Prof, Department of Industrial Management, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran.
3 Associate Professor, Department of Industrial Management, Qazvin Branch, Islamic Azad University, Qazvin, Iran.
چکیده [English]

The fourth wave of corporate foresight that is called "open foresight"; is an approach that seeks to understand, anticipate and shape future changes through broad social interactions and knowledge sharing between internal and external stakeholders. However, open foresight literature is at the development stage. So the purpose of this article is to deep understanding and cognition the nature of open foresight in the form of three axes of "why, what and how". This research has been conducted by systematic literature review and summarizing articles indexed in valid international scientific databases in the interval (2000-2020). Research findings show that "why" open foresight is explained in two topics of environmental drivers and supportive theoretical perspectives. Out of box thinking, synergy of resources, external knowledge absorption, collaborative knowledge management, inspiration for open innovation and open vision represent "what" open foresight. The process of open foresight includes three stages: pre-foresight, foresight and post-foresight; and requires individual, team and organizational preconditions. In addition, the role of the strategist is very important for trust building, facilitating information flow, coordinating and evaluating programs. This research, with systematic literature review, offers a deep insight into "why, what and how" open foresight; and while developing open foresight theory, opens a new window for future researchers.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Deep Thinking
  • Corporate Foresight
  • Open Foresight
  • Open Innovation
  • Inter-Organizational Collaboration

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