هدف: ظهور مجدد طالبان در می 2021، بار دیگر سرنوشت افغانستان را در کانون توجه قرار داده است. کنترل بلامنازع طالبان یک معمای پیچیده را در مورد آینده افغانستان ایجاد کرده است: آینده افغانستان چگونه خواهد بود؟ روش : برای پاسخگویی به پرسش تحقیق از منطق سناریونویسی استفاده شد. این مطالعه از متدولوژی شبکه جهانی کسب و کار برای توسعه سناریوها استفاده کرد. یافتهها: بر پایه منطق روش شبکه جهانی کسب و کار چهار سناریوی « مشت آهنین»، «شکست در میدان سیاست»، «ترس از یک بدعت شوم» و «اقبال بلند» از برآیند تقاطع عدم قطعیتهای کلیدی در ارتباط با آینده افغانستان ارائه و داستان هرکدام نیز تدوین شد. تحلیل شواهد ارائه شده نشان میدهد که سناریوی شکست در عرصه سیاسی به نظر محتملترین آینده برای افغانستان باشد. نتیجهگیری: پژوهش حاضر با بهرهگیری از منابع و دیدگاه متخصصان ایرانی و افغانستانی، تلاش کرد تا به ابهامات موجود پیرامون آینده افغانستان پرداخته و چشماندازی از آینده کشور را در قالب چهار سناریو ارائه دهد
تازه های تحقیق
توصیههای کلیدی برای سیاستگذاران دفاعی:
رویکردی سختگیرانه و واقعبینانه در قبال طالبان به منظور جلوگیری از تشدید تنشها و تهدیدهای امنیتی در مزرهای شرقی کشور؛
حل و فصل چالشها و تهدیدهای احتمالی ناشی از مهاجران بر علیه امنیت ملی ایران با حکومت طالبان؛
کمکهای ایران به افغانستان باید منوط به بازنگری طالبان در الگوی رفتاری و تعهد آن به مبارزه با تروریسم باشد؛
ایران باید به دنبال گسترش تعاملات خود با چین، پاکستان، هند و روسیه در ارتباط با افغانستان باشد، با تعمیق همسوییها؛ فرصتهای همکاری با این بازیگران را بررسی و با یافتن زمینههای همکاری در نهایت دستورکارهای مشترکی را با آنها در مورد آینده افغانستان طراحی کند؛
ارتباط با گروههای مختلف افغانی به منظور موازنه قدرت داخلی در افغانستان در مقابل طالبان؛
ایران باید آموزش نظامی بیشتری را به نیروهای امنیتی افغانستان ارائه و ظرفیت لازم را برای سرمایهگذاری بلندمدت در این کشور فراهم کند.
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فرهادی,فرشید . (1404). طالبان و چشمانداز پیکربندی ژئوپلیتیکی ساخت قدرت در افغانستان: سناریوی محتمل در افق 2030. آیندهپژوهی دفاعی, 10(37), 59-98. doi: 10.22034/dfsr.2025.2049103.1873
MLA
فرهادی,فرشید . "طالبان و چشمانداز پیکربندی ژئوپلیتیکی ساخت قدرت در افغانستان: سناریوی محتمل در افق 2030", آیندهپژوهی دفاعی, 10, 37, 1404, 59-98. doi: 10.22034/dfsr.2025.2049103.1873
HARVARD
فرهادی فرشید. (1404). 'طالبان و چشمانداز پیکربندی ژئوپلیتیکی ساخت قدرت در افغانستان: سناریوی محتمل در افق 2030', آیندهپژوهی دفاعی, 10(37), pp. 59-98. doi: 10.22034/dfsr.2025.2049103.1873
CHICAGO
فرشید فرهادی, "طالبان و چشمانداز پیکربندی ژئوپلیتیکی ساخت قدرت در افغانستان: سناریوی محتمل در افق 2030," آیندهپژوهی دفاعی, 10 37 (1404): 59-98, doi: 10.22034/dfsr.2025.2049103.1873
VANCOUVER
فرهادی فرشید. طالبان و چشمانداز پیکربندی ژئوپلیتیکی ساخت قدرت در افغانستان: سناریوی محتمل در افق 2030. DFSR, 1404; 10(37): 59-98. doi: 10.22034/dfsr.2025.2049103.1873
