Objective: The aim of the study was to propose a three-level (strategic, institutional, operational) policy model for cognitive defence in Iran to counter cognitive threats and to increase national resilience. Methods: A mixed-method approach has been used. Data have been collected through a systematic literature review (2015-25, Scopus and Magiran databases), an analysis of high-level Iranian documents (e.g., the Second Step Declaration on the Revolution, 2018), international reports, and the views of cognitive science and policy experts. The thematic analysis identified 14 key drivers, while the MICMAC analysis extracted five key drivers with significant influence and uncertainty. Strategic scenario planning has been used to develop future-oriented scenarios and a three-level model. Findings: Four futuristic scenarios (Intelligent Command, Advanced Divergence, Cognitive Chaos, and Defense Management) have been developed. The Intelligent Command scenario, which combines strong political will with modern technology, has been identified as the optimal approach to increase cognitive resilience. The three-level model emphasised active narrative policy, institutional coordination, and local content creation. Conclusion: Effective cognitive defense requires a national policy paper, a Supreme Cognitive Defense Council, an integrated Intelligent command, increased media literacy, and investments in homegrown cognitive technologies. If these factors are neglected, we risk undesirable scenarios like cognitive chaos
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Vahdaninia,Z. and Vahdaninia,V. (2025). A Model for Iran's Cognitive Defense Policy: A Scenario-Based Foresight Approach. Defensive Future Studies, 10(38), 161-202. doi: 10.22034/dfsr.2025.2062373.1914
MLA
Vahdaninia,Z. , and Vahdaninia,V. . "A Model for Iran's Cognitive Defense Policy: A Scenario-Based Foresight Approach", Defensive Future Studies, 10, 38, 2025, 161-202. doi: 10.22034/dfsr.2025.2062373.1914
HARVARD
Vahdaninia Z., Vahdaninia V. (2025). 'A Model for Iran's Cognitive Defense Policy: A Scenario-Based Foresight Approach', Defensive Future Studies, 10(38), pp. 161-202. doi: 10.22034/dfsr.2025.2062373.1914
CHICAGO
Z. Vahdaninia and V. Vahdaninia, "A Model for Iran's Cognitive Defense Policy: A Scenario-Based Foresight Approach," Defensive Future Studies, 10 38 (2025): 161-202, doi: 10.22034/dfsr.2025.2062373.1914
VANCOUVER
Vahdaninia Z., Vahdaninia V. A Model for Iran's Cognitive Defense Policy: A Scenario-Based Foresight Approach. DFSR, 2025; 10(38): 161-202. doi: 10.22034/dfsr.2025.2062373.1914
