Defensive Future Studies

Defensive Future Studies

The Impact of Artificial Intelligence on the Nature of Future Wars: A Strategic Perspective from NATO, RAND, and SIPRI Reports

Document Type : Original Article

Authors
1 Ph.D. Graduate in International Relations, Allameh Tabataba’i University, Tehran, Iran.
2 Associate Professor of International Relations, Allameh Tabataba’i University, Tehran, Iran
Abstract
Background and Objective: Artificial intelligence has brought profound transformations to various aspects of human life, generating diverse perspectives on its future. One of the most significantly affected domains is war. This study aims to provide a precise understanding of the dimensions and implications of AI on the nature of wars, based on the strategic documents of NATO, the RAND Corporation, and SIPRI.
Methods: To address the main research question, the study draws on Carl von Clausewitz's ideas. The content of the strategic documents from the three aforementioned organizations was examined and analyzed. The coding process was conducted using MAXQDA software, followed by a qualitative content analysis.
Findings: From the perspectives of NATO, RAND, and SIPRI, all three Clausewitzian indicators of the nature of war undergo both positive and negative transformations under the influence of artificial intelligence.
Conclusions: Understanding the impact of artificial intelligence on the nature of warfare can aid in managing future conditions and making strategic decisions. These transformations necessitate a reassessment of military concepts and strategies, particularly in the realm of AI.
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