Defensive Future Studies

Defensive Future Studies

The Interplay of Metaverse, Virtual Identity, and Soft War: Future Scenarios for Social Security in Iran

Document Type : Original Article

Authors
Seyed Mohammadsadegh Talebian 1
seyyed mohammad hossein badiei khamse fard 2
gholamreza godarzi 3
1 M.A. in Political Science, Faculty of Islamic Studies and Political Science, Imam Sadiq University, Tehran, Iran.
2 Ph.D. Candidate in Futures Studies, Faculty of Islamic Studies and Management, Imam Sadiq University, Tehran, Iran
3 Professor of Industrial Management, Imam Sadeq University, Tehran, Iran.
10.22034/dfsr.2025.2062123.1913
Abstract
Objectives: The expansion of the metaverse, while offering a new platform for interactions and identity formation, simultaneously poses potential threats to social security. This research aims to investigate future scenarios for social security in Iran in the face of challenges posed by the metaverse and soft war.
Methods: This study employed Schwartz's scenario planning (GBN) method. It identified key driving forces and critical uncertainties—specifically, the government's approach to the metaverse and the extent of soft war influence—through a literature review and expert interviews.
Findings: Four plausible scenarios were developed and analyzed: Virtual Isolation, Limited Opportunities, Virtual Quagmire, and Virtual Battlefield. The research indicates that the government's interaction with the transformative space of the metaverse necessitates a policy-driven approach grounded in collaboration with key decision-making bodies.
Conclusions: The future of social security in Iran is critically dependent on policymakers' strategic approaches, rational decision-making, and a clear understanding of the factors that could either undermine 
Keywords
Futures Studies
Metaverse
Social Security
Soft War
Schwartz Scenario Planning

Subjects

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Defensive Future Studies
Volume 10, Issue 38
Autumn 2025
Pages 45-78