Objective: The resurgence of the Taliban on May 1, 2021, has once again put Afghanistan's future in the spotlight. The Taliban's unchallenged control has created a complex situation regarding the nation's path ahead: What will Afghanistan's future look like? Method: Scenario planning was utilized to address this question. This study employed the established Global Business Network (GBN) methodology for scenario development. Findings: Using the GBN methodology, four scenarios emerged from the intersection of key uncertainties concerning Afghanistan's future: "Iron Fist," "Failure in the Political Arena," "Fear of a Pernicious Precedent," and "Good Fortune." We developed a narrative for each scenario. Analysis of the evidence suggests that the "Failure in the Political Arena" scenario is the most likely outcome for Afghanistan. Conclusion: This study draws on the insights of Iranian and Afghan experts to clarify existing ambiguities and uncertainties surrounding Afghanistan's future. It presents a vision for the country in the form of four scenarios
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MLA
Farhadi,F. . "Taliban and Prospects of the Geopolitical Configuration of Power Structure in Afghanistan: A Probable Scenario in the Horizon of 2030", Defensive Future Studies, 10, 37, 2025, 59-98. doi: 10.22034/dfsr.2025.2049103.1873
HARVARD
Farhadi F. (2025). 'Taliban and Prospects of the Geopolitical Configuration of Power Structure in Afghanistan: A Probable Scenario in the Horizon of 2030', Defensive Future Studies, 10(37), pp. 59-98. doi: 10.22034/dfsr.2025.2049103.1873
CHICAGO
F. Farhadi, "Taliban and Prospects of the Geopolitical Configuration of Power Structure in Afghanistan: A Probable Scenario in the Horizon of 2030," Defensive Future Studies, 10 37 (2025): 59-98, doi: 10.22034/dfsr.2025.2049103.1873
VANCOUVER
Farhadi F. Taliban and Prospects of the Geopolitical Configuration of Power Structure in Afghanistan: A Probable Scenario in the Horizon of 2030. DFSR, 2025; 10(37): 59-98. doi: 10.22034/dfsr.2025.2049103.1873
