Objective: the purpose of this research is to "explain the possible security scenarios of Azerbaijan in relation to Iran". Methodology: The current research is a part of exploratory research in terms of its practical purpose and Method: The statistical population was determined to be 30 people from top experts, managers and officials of the military and the country, and faculty members who have research experience in the field of future studies and are familiar with the issues of the countries of the Caucasus region. The required data is combined with environmental scanning, interviews with experts, and the use of questionnaires to collect and analyze data Findings: This research identified 135 effective key factors and 575 drivers for the future of relations between Iran and Azerbaijan. After analysis and expert opinion, the findings were summarized into 17 key factors and 21 driver titles. Conclusion: By ranking the key factors and drivers based on the degree of importance and uncertainty, two key uncertainties were selected. Three scenarios of "integration with Iran, competition with Iran, and hostilities with Iran" were visualized and analyzed with probabilities of 73%, 71%, and 45%, respectively.
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Sabahi,M. and Nadi,H. R. (2024). Possible security scenarios of the Republic of Azerbaijan in relation to the Islamic Republic of Iran. Defensive Future Studies, 9(34), 59-86. doi: 10.22034/dfsr.2024.2033714.1803
MLA
Sabahi,M. , and Nadi,H. R. . "Possible security scenarios of the Republic of Azerbaijan in relation to the Islamic Republic of Iran", Defensive Future Studies, 9, 34, 2024, 59-86. doi: 10.22034/dfsr.2024.2033714.1803
HARVARD
Sabahi M., Nadi H. R. (2024). 'Possible security scenarios of the Republic of Azerbaijan in relation to the Islamic Republic of Iran', Defensive Future Studies, 9(34), pp. 59-86. doi: 10.22034/dfsr.2024.2033714.1803
CHICAGO
M. Sabahi and H. R. Nadi, "Possible security scenarios of the Republic of Azerbaijan in relation to the Islamic Republic of Iran," Defensive Future Studies, 9 34 (2024): 59-86, doi: 10.22034/dfsr.2024.2033714.1803
VANCOUVER
Sabahi M., Nadi H. R. Possible security scenarios of the Republic of Azerbaijan in relation to the Islamic Republic of Iran. DFSR, 2024; 9(34): 59-86. doi: 10.22034/dfsr.2024.2033714.1803
