Objective: The intensification of environmental crises in Iran—especially water scarcity, wetland degradation, and climate pressure—has made this domain a major factor affecting human security and defense stability. In this context, the right to a healthy environment, recognized in Article 50 of the Constitution, is not merely an environmental right but also a strategic component in managing criminal and security risks arising from natural resource degradation. This study aims to provide a forward-looking analysis of the relationship between this right and security–defense risks in the medium term.

Methodology: The research adopted an exploratory futures studies approach and systematic thematic analysis of legal documents, laws, official reports, and other reliable sources. After identifying the main drivers, their interactions were examined through a cross-impact matrix. Two strategic uncertainties—the level of governance and the intensity of climate pressure—were then used to construct a 2×2 scenario matrix. The scenarios were compared using a quantitative security–defense risk index.

Findings: Six key drivers were identified, and four scenarios were developed. The findings showed that the scenario based on stronger governance and effective law enforcement generated the lowest overall scenario risk index.

Conclusion: Strengthening preventive governance and incorporating environmental risks into passive defense planning represent the lowest-risk pathway for the sustainable realization of the right to a healthy environment and for reducing security–defense threats.