https://www.dfsr.ir/ Defensive Future Studies en daily 1 Sun, 23 Aug 2026 00:00:00 +0330 Sun, 23 Aug 2026 00:00:00 +0330 https://www.dfsr.ir/article_736467.html Background and Objective: This article focuses on the structural implications of hypersonic weapons, examining the impact of this technology on strategic stability within the international system and outlining alternative futures up to the horizon of 2040. The research problem is that hypersonics are not merely a technological upgrade in speed; rather, by compressing decision-making time, increasing ambiguity regarding origin, destination, and warhead type, and deepening the gap between offensive weapons and defense systems, they are fundamentally transforming the classical logic of deterrence.Methods: The research adopts a qualitative approach based on directed content analysis. From 128 identified sources, 84 valid scientific and strategic sources were selected after refinement, yielding over 62 initial codes. Through the selective coding process, three key drivers—namely "strategic instability," "ineffectiveness of missile defense systems," and "unintended escalation and strategic ambiguity"—were identified and converted into core uncertainties. Subsequently, employing three-dimensional scenario building and Causal Layered Analysis, eight alternative scenarios were designed, ranging from instability in an environment of autonomous command and control systems and arms racing to the formation of institutional cooperation and deterrence based on effective active defense.Findings: The findings indicate that the future of strategic stability depends less on fixed technical characteristics and more on technological governance, the level of system autonomy, strategic transparency, and the degree of international cooperation.Conclusions: underscores the necessity of redefining the concept of strategic stability in a multipolar environment and emphasizes human control, preventive diplomacy, and confidence-building regimes to manage the risks of unintended escalation. https://www.dfsr.ir/article_737458.html Objective: To explain and predict the mission tranquility of defense personnel based on economic empowerment components with a future‑oriented approach.Methodology: This applied research employs a sequential three‑phase mixed method (qualitative‑quantitative‑qualitative). In the first phase, components were extracted through a systematic review of documents from reputable domestic and international databases, and an 17‑item instrument was developed by integrating and localizing dimensions of the standard Shi Financial Well‑Being Questionnaire. In the second phase, data from 169 commanders and managers of DAFOS AJA were collected through a non‑probability convenience sampling with a self‑selection mechanism and analyzed using multiple linear regression. In the third phase, the policy and future‑oriented implications of the model were evaluated and validated via the Delphi technique with 12 experts over two rounds.Findings: The quantitative findings showed that economic empowerment components explain 64.9% of the variance in mission tranquility. Financial control and debt management had the highest effect (β = 0.417) among all components. The Delphi results indicated expert consensus on structural solutions such as consolidating debts into a single low‑interest loan, fundamentally reforming the base salary, and expanding the support umbrella for families during long‑term missions; whereas merely teaching financial literacy without supportive infrastructure was deemed ineffective.Conclusion: Protecting human capital in the face of uncertainties requires enhancing economic empowerment and transitioning to preventive policies. When livelihood concerns are replaced by financial stability, personnel's mission tranquility is achieved. Analyzing these dimensions within the context of defense futures studies represents a principled strategy for enhancing force readiness. https://www.dfsr.ir/article_732234.html Objective: For several decades, the Islamic-Revolutionary ideology of the Islamic Republic of Iran has served as a central instrument in shaping the country’s soft power in West Asia. However, recent developments—including the decline of the Axis of Resistance in Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen; reduced support from Arab states; intensified military threats from the Israeli regime; and widening generational gaps within Iran—have introduced uncertainty regarding the future trajectory of this ideology. This research employs a qualitative and futures-oriented approach to examine the potential futures of this ideology and its evolving role in Iran’s foreign and cultural policy.Methodology: The study employs systematic content analysis, utilizing a comprehensive corpus of academic literature, analytical reports, and official policy documents. Cross-impact analysis is applied to examine the relationships among the key drivers, while the Shell scenario framework is utilized to outline plausible alternative futures.Findings: Six key drivers were identified: Islamic-Revolutionary ideology, cultural diplomacy, the Axis of Resistance, domestic public opinion, geopolitical conditions, and generational transformations. Based on these drivers, four scenarios were developed: “Continued Inspirational Influence,” “Functional Transformation,” “Gradual Decline,” and “Complete Isolation.”Conclusion: Comparative analysis of the scenarios indicates that “Functional Transformation” is the most favorable option for maintaining the soft-power capacity of the ideology. However, field evidence suggests a higher likelihood of the “Complete Isolation” scenario occurring in the near future. https://www.dfsr.ir/article_735727.html Objective: Modern warfare is increasingly shaped by rapid technological advancements. Given the Supreme Leader’s emphasis on the future of warfare being cognitive warfare, the role of cognitive technologies in future battlefields is pivotal. Furthermore, considering the necessity of advancing cognitive technologies within defense industries to bolster deterrence capabilities, this study specifically aims to identify key trends influencing the development of cognitive technologies in this sector.Methods: This research employs a deductive thematic analysis approach. After reviewing foundational defense policy documents and conducting a literature review to identify preliminary trends, semi-structured interviews were conducted with experts in cognitive science and defense technologies. Qualitative data analysis and theme extraction revealed eight critical trends shaping the development of these technologies.Findings: The identified trends include: Enhanced surveillance in cognitive science and technologies, Growing demand for mobilizing existing capacities, Expanded support for applied, defense-driven cognitive research, Development of cognitive sciences and technologies rooted in Islamic knowledge and resources, Cultural promotion and awareness-building, Continued recruitment and development of specialized human capital, Strengthening defense-oriented cognitive science and technology networks, Development of policymaking and financial support institutions.Conclusions: The findings lay the groundwork for establishing and advancing a defense cognitive industry, enhancing deterrence in cognitive warfare. Additionally, they provide a basis for prioritizing trends and scenario planning in cognitive technology development https://www.dfsr.ir/article_736730.html Background and Objective: In today’s global environment—characterized by escalating hybrid threats, rapid advancements in emerging technologies, and intensifying geopolitical competition—achieving sustainable competitive advantage in the defense industry necessitates a focused development of core capabilities. This study aims to formulate capability-oriented strategies for the defense lens.Methods: The research methodology is based on a comparative analysis of international experiences (U.S, China, Turkey, the United Kingdom, Iran, and others), a SWOT analysis of the national defense environment, and the derivation of both macro- and micro-level strategies.Findings: Findings indicate that despite significant domestic potential in technology, human capital, and operational experience, several challenges—such as limited commercialization, excessive confidentiality, software-related deficiencies, and technological sanctions—have hindered the full realization of core capabilities within Iran’s defense industry.Conclusions: A set of comprehensive strategies has been developed across seven key dimensions: smart deterrence, technological autonomy, value creation from dual-use technologies, innovation governance, cognitive warfare, technological diplomacy, and human capital preservation https://www.dfsr.ir/article_736050.html Objective: The intensification of environmental crises in Iran—especially water scarcity, wetland degradation, and climate pressure—has made this domain a major factor affecting human security and defense stability. In this context, the right to a healthy environment, recognized in Article 50 of the Constitution, is not merely an environmental right but also a strategic component in managing criminal and security risks arising from natural resource degradation. This study aims to provide a forward-looking analysis of the relationship between this right and security–defense risks in the medium term.Methodology: The research adopted an exploratory futures studies approach and systematic thematic analysis of legal documents, laws, official reports, and other reliable sources. After identifying the main drivers, their interactions were examined through a cross-impact matrix. Two strategic uncertainties—the level of governance and the intensity of climate pressure—were then used to construct a 2×2 scenario matrix. The scenarios were compared using a quantitative security–defense risk index.Findings: Six key drivers were identified, and four scenarios were developed. The findings showed that the scenario based on stronger governance and effective law enforcement generated the lowest overall scenario risk index.Conclusion: Strengthening preventive governance and incorporating environmental risks into passive defense planning represent the lowest-risk pathway for the sustainable realization of the right to a healthy environment and for reducing security–defense threats. https://www.dfsr.ir/article_735813.html Background and Objective: This study aims to identify and analyze the spatiotemporal patterns of mobility and deployment of extra-regional U.S. naval units in Southwest Asia through a data-driven and integrative framework based on statistical clustering analysis.Methods: To achieve this objective, vessel position and timestamp data covering the period 2021–2024 were collected from open-source Automatic Identification System (AIS) feeds and Open-Source Intelligence (OSINT) reports, cleaned, and processed using Python and QGIS environments. The K-Means clustering algorithm was applied, with the Elbow and Silhouette methods employed to determine the optimal number of clusters. Model performance was assessed using the Davies–Bouldin Index and Silhouette Coefficient (1.12 and 0.78, respectively), confirming strong separation and high-quality cluster formation.Findings: The analysis identified six primary clusters of naval activity concentrated in the Strait of Hormuz, the Gulf of Oman, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, the Gulf of Aden, and the northern Indian Ocean. Temporal variations within these clusters demonstrated significant correlations with regional security events, multinational naval exercises, and geopolitical developments.Conclusions: The results indicate that spatiotemporal clustering serves as an effective analytical tool for monitoring naval operations, anticipating potential threats, and enhancing foresight-based defense decision-making. This research contributes a practical, data-driven framework for examining maritime power dynamics within complex geopolitical systems and for advancing strategic foresight capabilities in defense and security planning https://www.dfsr.ir/article_735814.html Background and Objective: :The aim of the present study is to elucidate and identify the political drivers and factors influencing the defense diplomacy of the Islamic Republic of Iran.Methodology: The present study is applied in nature and, in terms of its essence and implementation, is considered a descriptive-exploratory research with a mixed-methods approach. The process of selecting the statistical population was conducted purposefully, and sampling was performed using the census method. The population consists of 35 individuals, including faculty members of armed forces universities and professors and experts in political science and international relations with at least ten years of experience in political, military, and strategic roles. Data collection tools included library studies of scientific and specialized sources, brainstorming techniques, and interviews with expertFindings: In the initial stage, 38 drivers were identified. After evaluation by the sample community, 16 influential drivers were selected and categorized for inclusion in the interaction analysis matrix and MicMac software.Conclusion: The research Results indicate that defense diplomacy is influenced by complex and multifaceted factors. Among these, the three key drivers identified as the most significant are mitigating external threats, cooperation with international organizations,and lifting economic sanctions. These findings suggest that the defense diplomacy of the Islamic Republic of Iran is not only shaped by military considerations but is also heavily influenced by international political and economic developments. https://www.dfsr.ir/article_735733.html Objective: The evolution of security from a traditional, military-based concept to a human-centered, multidimensional one has profoundly affected maritime societies. This study examines how this shift enables the transition from a system of military dominance over the seas toward a maritime society founded on cooperation, sustainable development, and collective security, with a particular focus on Iran’s perspective.Methodology: This theoretical-explanatory research employed library and internet-based data collection, using a descriptive-analytical approach. A systematic review of sources was conducted. Analytical validity was ensured through logical reasoning and documentary evidence, while reliability was guaranteed by transparent citation and traceable analysis. Data analysis involved perception, classification, interpretation, and inference.Findings: Broad definitions of security foster cooperation, whereas narrow definitions prioritize traditional security and competition. This duality complicates understanding and challenges the planning of a cooperative international space. Operationalizing the maritime society model requires recognizing macro-threats to human society. Long-term issues such as the sea-based economy and marine environment are key elements that can facilitate state cooperation toward achieving the maritime society model.Conclusion: Rethinking maritime security strategies is essential for forming an inclusive and sustainable maritime society. For Iran, redefining maritime security by integrating economic, environmental, social, and technological dimensions with defense needs can enhance its position in the new maritime order and realize sustainable national interests. https://www.dfsr.ir/article_735858.html Objective: The independence of the Iraqi Kurdistan Region has elevated the discourse of Kurdish nationalism to a political level and raised concerns about its security implications for the Kurdish regions of Iran. This study seeks to explain the scenarios of the impact of these developments on Iran's military security Methodology: The present research is an applied-developmental research with an exploratory-explanatory nature and a futures research approach. In the qualitative phase, semi-structured interviews were conducted with 11 experts including military commanders, security experts, former ambassadors and consuls general of Iran in the Kurdistan Region and the data were coded using content analysis. In the quantitative phase, a questionnaire was distributed among 89 commanders and senior experts of the armed forces and experts in the field of diplomacy and analyzed using descriptive statistics. Validity was confirmed with a CVR of 0.8 and reliability with a Cronbach's alpha of 0.957. Uncertainties were identified with the Scenario Wizard software and scenarios were validated. Findings: The five drivers of strengthening symbolic Kurdish nationalism, motivational role modeling, cross-border ethnic solidarity, the capacity of party networks, and the moderating role of domestic variables, and the two uncertainties of Iran’s domestic strategy and the level of external support, formed four alternative scenarios: active security resilience, gradual security erosion, hybrid challenge, and acute crisis. In the validation, the “gradual security erosion” scenario was determined to be the most likely future with 64% expert consensus Results: The impact of Iraqi Kurdistan’s independence on Iran’s military security is a contingent, multi-layered, and nonlinear process that is influenced by the interaction of identity drivers with domestic strategy and external intervention. The likely scenario of gradual erosion is a strategic warning about increasing security costs and intensifying low-intensity insecurities. A way out of this scenario requires a transition from a purely security-oriented strategy to a convergence-development-oriented approach. https://www.dfsr.ir/article_736583.html Background and Objective: In complex environment of air defense, enhancing command and control (C2) systems requires determining an optimal human–artificial intelligence (AI) interaction pattern. The primary issue is the future-oriented elucidation of AI capabilities to improve the performance of C2 systems and the fusion of air defense radar data within the processes of detection, situation assessment, threat evaluation, and action (adaptation levels), within the JDL–CECA data fusion model.Methods: This study employed a mixed-methods approach. In the qualitative phase, a directed content analysis method was used, involving semi-structured interviews with 9 experts. In the quantitative phase, a questionnaire based on the qualitative findings was distributed to a sample of 84 participants. The data were analyzed using descriptive statistics and the Friedman test.Findings: From the perspectives of the experts and the study sample, the initial step toward improving radar information fusion and enhancing air defense C2 system performance should focus on the intelligent processing of radar data. Subsequently, after intelligent data fusion at the adaptation levels, human interactive and supervisory capabilities in conjunction with intelligent systems should be developed.Conclusion: AI plays an enabling role in target detection and data processing in radars. However, at the adaptation levels, emphasis is placed on human oversight and the ability for rapid intervention by expert and responsible human decision-makers. Of course, this progression reflects the perceptions of the study sample regarding the priorities for developing the air defense C2 network and does not necessarily indicate definitive causal relationships or implementation sequences. https://www.dfsr.ir/article_736585.html Background and Objective: Rapid technological developments and the increasing complexity of future threats have increased the need to utilize future-oriented approaches in defense governance. In his statements, especially in meetings with defense officials and academic elites, Ayatollah Khamenei has always emphasized the comprehensive development of technology and its use as a driver of national authority. This research aims to explain the paths of defense technology development in the Command University and the AJA Headquarters, based on a systematic analysis of their statements and their futures-oriented interpretation. Methods: The research approach is qualitative and applied in terms of purpose, and was conducted using the directional content analysis method using MAXQDA software. First, the main categories were extracted from the analysis of the statements. Then, the interview process was conducted with 22 professors and researchers in order to interpret the institutional context, localize the concepts, and examine the possibility of their realization in the university context. Findings: The results show that the direction of defense technology development is based on three key pillars: comprehensive technology development in the country, effective interaction between the university and the defense industry and knowledge-based companies, and the definition of technology as a driver of progress and national authority. Also, three scenarios of "technological leadership", "gradual progress," and "technological disruption" were drawn as possible futures of Dafos Aja's technological development. Conclusions: An analysis of Ayatollah Khamenei’s statements shows that the development of defense technology in his intellectual system has a future-oriented and authority-building orientation. Realizing this orientation at DAFOS requires a combination of forward-looking vision, technological institution-building, and mission-oriented planning. These three components can provide a practical framework for strengthening the role of this university in the development of defense technologies https://www.dfsr.ir/article_736669.html Objective: Transboundary waters in West Asia have, in recent decades, evolved from a purely environmental issue into a major factor shaping the region’s security and defense equations. Turkey’s Southeastern Anatolia Project (GAP), through creating structural asymmetries in the control of the Tigris and Euphrates water resources, has generated extensive environmental and human consequences for downstream states, particularly Iran. This study examines the mechanisms of Turkish hydro-hegemony and its implications for the environmental–defense security of the region with a focus on Iran. Methodology: The research adopts a qualitative approach based on structural–explanatory foresight. Data were collected and analyzed through systematic content analysis of Turkish water policy documents, international water and environmental law instruments, reports of regional and international organizations, and related scientific studies. Findings: The findings indicate that Turkey’s hydro-hegemony is reproduced through infrastructural control over water flows, institutional gaps, and the asymmetric transfer of environmental costs. The consequences of this structure—including wetland degradation, desertification, intensified dust storms, and declining water quality—have been transmitted transboundary to Iran and manifested as soft defense risks. Conclusion: The results suggest that the future of Iran’s environmental–defense security depends on its ability to intervene strategically in hydro-hegemonic structures. Strengthening water diplomacy, regional cooperation, and territorial resilience can play a significant role in reducing security vulnerabilities arising from the regional water crisis. https://www.dfsr.ir/article_737457.html Background and Objective: Recent developments in Syria—Assad's fall and the rise of Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham—have reshaped Syria's geopolitics and Iran's strategic depth in the Axis of Resistance. Once central to Iran's regional strategy, Syria now faces growing Salafi–Takfiri influence and intervention by actors opposed to Iran. Given Syria's Levantine role, these changes have significant implications for regional stability, Iran's security, and the broader balance of power. This study offers a futures-oriented analysis and outlines plausible scenarios for Iran's strategic depth. Methods: This qualitative, applied research used documentary analysis and semi-structured interviews with 18 experts in geopolitics, international relations, and defense. Scenario-planning identified key drivers, critical uncertainties, and alternative scenarios across political, economic, and security dimensions. Findings: Four scenarios emerged: strategic consolidation, active geopolitical competition, gradual decline, and strategic stagnation. Each has distinct security, economic, and discursive implications for Iran and the region. US and Zionist regime's role in shaping post-Assad order, along with Iran's capacity to adapt and redefine its regional doctrine, were identified as key determinants of outcomes. Conclusions: Sustaining Iran's role in post-Assad Syria requires coordinated action at strategic, operational, and discursive levels. A forward-looking approach can promote consolidation while mitigating risks of decline, ensuring both national security and regional influence https://www.dfsr.ir/article_738004.html Background and Objective: This research aims to select an appropriate theory for Iran's sea-oriented development. Methods: This applied-developmental study employed descriptive-analytical methods, qualitative content analysis, and comparative analysis of classical sea power theories (Mahan, Corbett, Panikkar, List, Hirschman) alongside Rear Admiral Khanzadi's preliminary theory. The selected theory was validated against general policies and conventional theory evaluation criteria. Findings: Rear Admiral Khanzadi's theory integrates geopolitical, economic, and cultural elements, positioning sea-oriented development as a strategic model for identity formation, wealth generation, and the renaissance of Iranian civilization. Sea power is realized when a "maritime civilization" emerges, activating industrial, technological, and social cycles in coastal areas, particularly the Makran coast. The theory emphasizes constructive engagement with global and regional power structures to secure Iran's active position in the new world order. Conclusions: Khanzadi's theory, incorporating key elements from maritime theories while meeting conventional criteria, demonstrates considerable potential to serve as an acceptable frameworkfor Iran's sea-oriented development. It requires deep understanding of the relationship between sea, civilization, and national power, presenting a comprehensive model that shifts the country's perspective from a security lens to a civilizational, economic, and technological approach. The proposed framework appears to be implementable through combining open economy, integrated coastal zone management, indigenous knowledge, and local community participation https://www.dfsr.ir/article_738863.html Background and Objective: In the realm of contemporary rapid cultural, media, and cognitive transformations, safeguarding the cultural identity of societies — especially against discursive conflicts and rival civilizational models — has become a crucial issue in cultural governance. Under these circumstances, "cultural defense" is not merely a confrontation with overt threats; rather, it is a strategic and future-oriented concept that, by preserving the foundations of identity and values, strengthens the capacity for meaning-making, cognitive resilience, and social hope. The present research aims to identify the dimensions and requirements of a cultural defense model based on the Second Phase of the Revolution Statement, and seeks to explain the conceptual capacity of this statement for designing a coherent and efficient model in the field of cultural defense.Methods: In terms of purpose, this research is applied-developmental, and in terms of nature, it is qualitative, conducted using a descriptive-analytical method. Data were collected through library studies, review of upstream documents, relevant theoretical sources, and conceptual content analysis of the Second Phase of the Revolution Statement.Findings: The cultural defense model based on this statement can be formulated into six dimensions:1)Identity-civilizational.2)Epistemological-doctrinal. 3)Educational-generational. 4)Media-cognitive. 5)Social-popular. 6)Managerial-governance. These dimensions, in a networked connection, enable the transition from passive and purely negative approaches to an active, positive, future-oriented, and people-based approach.Conclusions: Translating the macro concepts of the statement into indicators, policies, and executive mechanisms can provide a strategic foundation for redesigning the country's cultural defense system and strengthening the identity resilience of society. https://www.dfsr.ir/article_738873.html Objective: The transformation of the security environment in Southwest Asia and the emergence of new regional alliances have caused deterrence to move beyond the classical military paradigm toward networked, hybrid, and cross-domain structures. Within this framework, the Islamic Republic of Iran has gradually moved toward a form of “networked deterrence” based on cyber capabilities, unmanned aerial systems, intelligence capacities, geoeconomic instruments, and regional depth. This study aims to analyze future scenarios of Iran’s smart balancing strategy in response to emerging regional alliances. Methodology: This research adopts a qualitative, comparative, and foresight-oriented approach. Data were collected through the analysis of strategic documents, security reports, and scientific sources. Structural analysis and cross-impact analysis were employed to identify key driving forces; comparative indicator development was used to assess deterrence capacities; and scenario construction was conducted through the logic of critical uncertainties and sensitivity analysis... Findings: The findings indicate that “Sustainable Smart Balancing,” based on networked deterrence, cross-domain capabilities, and strategic resilience, represents the most favorable scenario for Iran in confronting emerging regional alliances. Conclusion: The findings indicate that the scenario of “Sustainable Smart Balancing” represents the most desirable pathway for maintaining Iran’s deterrence capacity, preventing escalation of tensions, and managing multidimensional competition in the emerging security environment of Southwest Asia. https://www.dfsr.ir/article_735728.html Objective: This research aims to develop scenarios and strategies to ensure the security of sports events in Iran. Methods: A mixedmethod approach was employed, combining quantitative techniques such as cross-effects analysis questionnaires, Mig Mac software, and Scenario Wizard software with qualitative techniques including expert panels and interviews. Findings: From the data analysis, 22 uncertainties were identified,out of which7were selected as key uncertainties. Based on these, three scenarios and six strategies were formulated. Conclusions: The strategies corresponding to the three scenarios include implementing a systematic unified management approach to ensure the security of sports events in Iran; emphasizing the improvement of operational processes and creating robust security and police infrastructures equipped with modern technologies to reduce reliance on human intervention; establishing new regulations and oversight mechanisms for hosting sports events, facilitated through thorough police supervision and effective monitoring; enhancing coordination among responsible organizations via strengthened collaborations; and creating a dedicated command and monitoring center under police supervision to ensure a secure environment for sporting events in Iran. https://www.dfsr.ir/article_738862.html Objective: This study aims to analyze the strategic transformation within U.S. National Security Strategy (NSS) documents from 1991 to 2025, with a primary focus on its implications for the national security of Iran. The core problem of this research is to explicate Washington’s paradigmatic shift from “Responsible Hegemony” to “Aggressive Nationalism” over this timeframe.Methodology: This qualitative research employed a tripartite methodological approach: First, “Thematic Analysis” (Braun & Clarke) was used to extract six pathways of metamorphosis. Second, “Causal Layered Analysis” (CLA) by Sohail Inayatullah was utilized to explore hidden layers and shifting strategic metaphors. Finally, “Scenario Planning” (Peter Schwartz) was applied to map four alternative futures for bilateral relations.Findings: The results indicate a “paradigmatic rupture” in the U.S. strategic mindset. CLA findings revealed that the metaphor of “Global Policeman” has been replaced by the “Fortress Surgeon,” seeking physical elimination of obstacles rather than order management. The scenario synthesis showed that the most probable outcome is the U.S. transition to “kinetic” actions (e.g., Midnight Hammer) against Iran’s critical infrastructure, independent of international institutions.Conclusion: The study concludes that while the “Strategic Hard Core” of U.S. policy remains constant, its operational shell has shifted toward “material capacity destruction.” Consequently, redefining Iran’s deterrence doctrine from “strategic patience” to “smart proactivity” and focusing on infrastructural passive defense is imperative. https://www.dfsr.ir/article_740951.html Objective: The expansion of digital infrastructure and emerging technologies has transformed cybercrime into an issue increasingly associated with national security. This study aimed to identify future cybercrime scenarios in Iran, analyze their legal and defense implications, and derive the corresponding requirements for national security policymaking. Methodology: The study adopted a strategic foresight approach and a descriptive-analytical method. Data obtained from legal documents, specialized reports, scientific studies, and strategic documents were examined using qualitative content analysis. After the variables were extracted, their relationships were assessed through cross-impact analysis. Two critical uncertainties, namely “the intensity and complexity of cyber threats” and “the maturity of cyber governance and national security policymaking,” were subsequently used as the basis for developing four scenarios. The scenarios were weighted and evaluated using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), with the participation of 12 experts in law, cybersecurity, cyber defense, futures studies, and national security policymaking who were selected through convenience sampling... Findings: Five final criteria were identified: the intensity and complexity of cyber threats, legal and legislative capacity, cyber defense capability, national security resilience, and cyber governance maturity, with respective weights of 0.28, 0.12, 0.24, 0.16, and 0.20. Based on the final AHP scores, the “Strong Defense Against Severe Threats” scenario ranked first with a score of 4.72. Conclusion: Reducing future cyber risks requires the simultaneous strengthening of cyber governance, defense capabilities, legal capacity, and national resilience. https://www.dfsr.ir/article_740952.html Background and Objective Advances in emerging technologies particularly artificial intelligence, big data, autonomous systems, and cognitive-enhancing platforms have turned the cognitive domain into one of the principal arenas of competition and threat in the security environment of IRI. Despite the proliferation of these technologies, no comprehensive framework yet exists for explaining technology-driven cognitive threats. Accordingly, this study aimed to design and explicate a model of the dimensions, categories, and themes of technology-driven cognitive threats. Methods: study was conducted using an exploratory qualitative approach grounded in grounded theory. The study population comprised academic and executive experts in cognitive security and emerging technologies, from whom 26 participants were selected through purposive and snowball sampling. Data were collected through in-depth semi-structured interviews and a review of 24 specialized documents. The data were analyzed through open, axial, and selective coding based on Strauss and Corbin’s paradigmatic. Findings: Data analysis led to the identification of six main dimensions within the paradigmatic model (causal conditions, central phenomenon, contextual features, intervening conditions, strategies, and consequences), 20 categories, and 80 themes, which together explain the conceptual structure of technology-driven cognitive threats. The extracted dimensions explain this phenomenon in terms of its formative origins, mechanisms of influence, consequences, and response requirements. Conclusions:Technology-driven cognitive threats, as an emerging and multidimensional phenomenon, require the development valid conceptual frameworks, analytical models, and measurement tools. The proposed model can provide a basis for policymaking, monitoring, assessment, and the design of preventive and counteractive strategies in cognitive security and the governance of emerging technologies. https://www.dfsr.ir/article_741573.html Background and Objective: The increasing automation, information load, and complexity of human-machine interaction in future military aviation have heightened the importance of cognitive readiness and executive functions among pilots. This study aimed to investigate the effectiveness of mindfulness-based stress reduction (MBSR) on pilots’ executive functions and explore its implications for cognitive readiness in military aviation. Methods: This quasi-experimental study employed a pretest-posttest design with a control group. The study population consisted of pilots from Shahid Satari Air University in 2024, from which 30 participants were selected using via random sampling assigned to either the experimental or control group (15 participants each). The experimental group received eight 60-minute sessions of mindfulness-based stress reduction training. Executive functions were assessed using the working memory test, Stroop test, Go/No-Go test, reaction time test, and Wisconsin Card Sorting Test. Data were analyzed using chi-square, independent t-tests, and multivariate analysis of covariance (MANCOVA) in SPSS. Findings: Compared to the control group, mindfulness-based stress reduction training led to significant improvements in working memory, attention, response inhibition, reaction time, and cognitive flexibility. Conclusion: Mindfulness-based stress reduction can improve certain components of executive functions in pilots in the short term and may be considered as a complementary intervention to enhance cognitive readiness. However, generalizing these findings to combat readiness and real operational performance requires longitudinal, field, and simulation-based studies https://www.dfsr.ir/article_742113.html Objective: Future warfare, driven by AI and autonomous systems, imposes extreme cognitive loads on commanders.This study aims to identify and rank cognitive bias patterns within the 20-year horizon of modern warfare. Methods: This qualitative study employs a meta-synthesis approach. Following CASP screening, 33 credible sources were analyzed using three-stage coding in MAXQDA software. Findings: The findings identified a hierarchy of eight critical biases, with confirmation bias, availability bias, and anchoring bias being the most prevalent. Crucially, the analysis revealed the emergence of automation bias as a primary strategic risk in AI-enabled future warfare, where commanders may exhibit a tendency toward passive approval of algorithmic recommendations without critical scrutiny. These biases predominantly disrupt the "Orient" phase of the OODA loop, leading to cognitive rigidity and vulnerability to strategic deception. Conclusions: To safeguard decisions over the next 20 years, armed forces must shift from error elimination to error-resilient decision systems and strengthen cognitive readiness against emerging cognitive warfare threats. https://www.dfsr.ir/article_742115.html Background and Objectives: Modern airpower transformation requires more than equipment modernization; it demands the realignment of doctrine, decision-making, cognitive dominance, and operational synergy. This study validates a model explaining doctrine and operational synergy as drivers for achieving a Revolution in Military Affairs (RMA) in the Islamic Republic of Iran Air Force (IRIAF). Methods: This applied study used a sequential exploratory mixed-methods approach. The qualitative phase involved inductive content analysis using open, axial, and selective coding in ATLAS.ti, resulting in the extraction of 28 indicators across three dimensions. In the quantitative phase, survey data from 200 IRIAF senior commanders and academic faculty were analyzed using Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) via SmartPLS 4. Findings: The dimensions of “conceptual doctrine transformation,” “decision cycle and cognitive dominance,” and “strategic synergy and operational integration” significantly and positively affected the main construct. Strategic synergy and operational integration exerted the greatest effect. The structural model explained 79% of the variance in the doctrine and operational synergy construct. Conclusions: RMA in the IRIAF requires transitioning from platform-centric to effects-based operations, from a reactive posture to proactive initiative, and from isolated operations to strategic synergy and integration. Thus, doctrine and operational synergy serve as the primary drivers of IRIAF airpower RMA. https://www.dfsr.ir/article_742197.html Background and Objective: The structural model is a conceptual framework designed to reduce ambiguity in defining the system under study while enhancing understanding of its scope and details. In a three-tier classification system, naval forces are defined, categorized, and distinguished into three ranks: blue-water, green-water, and brown-water navies. The objective of this research is to present a structural model of Blue-Water Navy Power.Methods: This applied article was developed using a descriptive-analytical method and a mixed approach. The data for this study were collected using both library and field research methods and were analyzed with the assistance of 15 experts and 150 senior specialists. Qualitative data were analyzed using content analysis, and structural analysis was conducted using Smart PLS software.Findings: An analytical approach based on roles, objectives, and tasks led to the design and formulation of a structural model for Blue-water naval power, comprising 4 role-performance capabilities (dimensions), 10 objective-realization abilities (components), and 144 task-execution capabilities (indicators).Conclusions: In the structural model of blue-water navy power, the "military role" ranks first in importance with a coefficient of determination of 96% and a weight coefficient of 31%; the "policing role" ranks second with a coefficient of determination of 83% and a weight coefficient of 27%; the "humanitarian role" ranks third with a coefficient of determination of 70% and a weight coefficient of 23%; and the "diplomatic role" ranks fourth with a coefficient of determination of 59% and a weight coefficient of 19%.