Defensive Future Studies

Defensive Future Studies

Analysis of Movements and Deployment of Extra-Regional Naval Units with an Emphasis on the U.S. Navy in Southwest Asia Using the K-Means Algorithm

Document Type : Original Article

Authors
Mohammad Mahdi Ansari Jou 1
Nader Shamami 2
Maziar Jahanbakhsh 3
Mohammad Ansari Jou 4
1 Student of Biomedical Engineering, Islamic Azad University, Science and Research Branch, Tehran, Iran
2 Assistant Professor of Defense Management, , IRI Military Command and Staff University, Tehran, Iran
3 Instructor of Defense Management, IRI Military Command and Staff University, Tehran, Iran
4 Student of Industrial Engineering, Islamic Azad University, Tehran Central Branch, Tehran, Iran
10.22034/dfsr.2026.2068987.1939
Abstract
Background and Objective: This study aims to identify and analyze the spatiotemporal patterns of mobility and deployment of extra-regional U.S. naval units in Southwest Asia through a data-driven and integrative framework based on statistical clustering analysis.
Methods: To achieve this objective, vessel position and timestamp data covering the period 2021–2024 were collected from open-source Automatic Identification System (AIS) feeds and Open-Source Intelligence (OSINT) reports, cleaned, and processed using Python and QGIS environments. The K-Means clustering algorithm was applied, with the Elbow and Silhouette methods employed to determine the optimal number of clusters. Model performance was assessed using the Davies–Bouldin Index and Silhouette Coefficient (1.12 and 0.78, respectively), confirming strong separation and high-quality cluster formation.
Findings: The analysis identified six primary clusters of naval activity concentrated in the Strait of Hormuz, the Gulf of Oman, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, the Gulf of Aden, and the northern Indian Ocean. Temporal variations within these clusters demonstrated significant correlations with regional security events, multinational naval exercises, and geopolitical developments.
Conclusions: The results indicate that spatiotemporal clustering serves as an effective analytical tool for monitoring naval operations, anticipating potential threats, and enhancing foresight-based defense decision-making. This research contributes a practical, data-driven framework for examining maritime power dynamics within complex geopolitical systems and for advancing strategic foresight capabilities in defense and security planning
Keywords
Naval Movements Clustering K-Means
Data Mining
Geopolitical Analysis
Intelligent Monitoring
Subjects
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Defensive Future Studies
Volume 11, Issue 41
Summer 2026
Pages 237-265

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خلاصه صوتی مقاله

  • Receive Date 30 August 2025
  • Revise Date 16 February 2026
  • Accept Date 17 February 2026
  • Publish Date 23 August 2026