Defensive Future Studies

Defensive Future Studies

Foresight of Security Threats in the Southeastern Region of Iran

Document Type : Original Article

Author
Abdoulreza Bagheri
Assistant Prof of Public Policy. Farabi Faculty of Sciences and Technologies, , Tehran, Iran
10.22034/dfsr.2026.2076423.1967
Abstract
Background and Objective: Due to its unique geopolitical position, Sistan and Baluchestan province faces complex and multi-layered security threats. Traditional threat assessment approaches, due to their linear and one-dimensional nature, are unable to analyze the dynamics of this environment and lead to strategic surprise. The purpose of this research is to foresight security threats in this region by presenting a novel analytical-strategic framework.
Methodology: This qualitative research was conducted with a strategic foresight approach. Its theoretical framework was a combination of "Complex Systems Theory" and the "Foresight Paradigm". Data were collected through semi-structured interviews with 25 experts and document studies, and analyzed using thematic analysis, structural analysis (MICMAC), and scenario planning.
Findings: Structural analysis revealed two factors, "the level of socio-economic development in the province" and "the degree of security cooperation and control by Afghanistan," as key uncertainties shaping the core of the system. The intersection of these two factors delineated four plausible future scenarios: Sustainable Calm, Fragile Security, Controlled Insecurity, and Perfect Storm. Analysis of the role of factors revealed the critical importance of regulating factors (social capital and local governance efficiency) in modulating system resilience.
Conclusion: The region's security future is not a predetermined destiny but the result of today's strategic choices in managing the interaction of these two key axes. The research innovation lies in presenting an "Adaptive Governance Framework" comprising a basket of monitoring indicators, a strategic secretariat structure, and a scenario-based decision-making model, which bridges the gap between foresight analysis and operational action.
Keywords
Threat Foresight
Border Security
Security of Southeastern Iran
Complex Systems
Scenario Planning
Subjects
 
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Defensive Future Studies
Volume 11, Issue 40
Spring 2026
Pages 1-41