Objective: Modern warfare is increasingly shaped by rapid technological advancements. Given the Supreme Leader’s emphasis on the future of warfare being cognitive warfare, the role of cognitive technologies in future battlefields is pivotal. Furthermore, considering the necessity of advancing cognitive technologies within defense industries to bolster deterrence capabilities, this study specifically aims to identify key trends influencing the development of cognitive technologies in this sector.
Methods: This research employs a deductive thematic analysis approach. After reviewing foundational defense policy documents and conducting a literature review to identify preliminary trends, semi-structured interviews were conducted with experts in cognitive science and defense technologies. Qualitative data analysis and theme extraction revealed eight critical trends shaping the development of these technologies.
Findings: The identified trends include: Enhanced surveillance in cognitive science and technologies, Growing demand for mobilizing existing capacities, Expanded support for applied, defense-driven cognitive research, Development of cognitive sciences and technologies rooted in Islamic knowledge and resources, Cultural promotion and awareness-building, Continued recruitment and development of specialized human capital, Strengthening defense-oriented cognitive science and technology networks, Development of policymaking and financial support institutions.
Conclusions: The findings lay the groundwork for establishing and advancing a defense cognitive industry, enhancing deterrence in cognitive warfare. Additionally, they provide a basis for prioritizing trends and scenario planning in cognitive technology development