Defensive Future Studies

Defensive Future Studies

The Future of Marine-Oriented Sustainable Development in I.R. Iran: From the Systematic Discovery of Key Dimensions and Effective Driving Forces to Scenario Development through the Integration of Meta-Synthesis, Cross-Impact Analysis, and Strategic Foresight.

Document Type : Original Article

Authors
Hoshang Hasanpour 1
Kamran Mohamadkhani 2
Parivash Jaafari 3
1 1.PhD Student in Educational Administration, SR.C., Islamic Azad Univercity, Tehran, Iran.
2 Professor of Higher Education Management Department, Faculty of Management, SR.C., Islamic Azad Univercity, Tehran, Iran.
3 Professor of Educational Administration Department, Faculty of Management, SR.C., Islamic Azad Univercity, Tehran, Iran.
10.22034/dfsr.2026.2078810.1978
Abstract
Background and Objective: Marine-oriented sustainable development refers to the sustainable utilization of maritime capacity to meet the needs of present and future generations, achieved through the harmonization of human beings with the marine environment. In this regard, the objective of the present study is to explore and identify the future of marine-oriented sustainable development in the Islamic Republic of Iran.
Methods: In terms of purpose, this research is developmental-applied; in terms of the nature of data, it is qualitative; and in terms of data collection method, it is documentary (desk-based). To analyze the data, meta-synthesis, cross-impact analysis, and strategic foresight have been employed.
Findings: In the context of marine-oriented sustainable development, seven distinct dimensions were identified. By selecting the two dimensions characterized by the highest degree of uncertainty—namely, marine-oriented politics and marine science and technology—and through a series of defined procedural steps, four alternative scenarios for the future of marine-oriented sustainable development in I.R. Iran were developed for the horizon of 1410 (Solar Hijri).
Conclusion: The future of marine-oriented sustainable development in I.R. Iran is contingent upon the intelligent management of the intricate, intertwined network of key dimensions and their influential driving forces. Attaining the desirable scenario—"A Thriving Sea with Hoisted Sails and a Favorable Wind"—is not a mere aspiration, but rather a definitive "strategic choice."
Keywords
Marine Sustainable Development
Diplomacy
Science and Technology
Strategic Foresight
Meta-synthesis
Subjects
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Defensive Future Studies
Volume 11, Issue 40
Spring 2026
Pages 239-287