Objective: For several decades, the Islamic-Revolutionary ideology of the Islamic Republic of Iran has served as a central instrument in shaping the country’s soft power in West Asia. However, recent developments—including the decline of the Axis of Resistance in Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen; reduced support from Arab states; intensified military threats from the Israeli regime; and widening generational gaps within Iran—have introduced uncertainty regarding the future trajectory of this ideology. This research employs a qualitative and futures-oriented approach to examine the potential futures of this ideology and its evolving role in Iran’s foreign and cultural policy.
Methodology: The study employs systematic content analysis, utilizing a comprehensive corpus of academic literature, analytical reports, and official policy documents. Cross-impact analysis is applied to examine the relationships among the key drivers, while the Shell scenario framework is utilized to outline plausible alternative futures.
Findings: Six key drivers were identified: Islamic-Revolutionary ideology, cultural diplomacy, the Axis of Resistance, domestic public opinion, geopolitical conditions, and generational transformations. Based on these drivers, four scenarios were developed: “Continued Inspirational Influence,” “Functional Transformation,” “Gradual Decline,” and “Complete Isolation.”
Conclusion: Comparative analysis of the scenarios indicates that “Functional Transformation” is the most favorable option for maintaining the soft-power capacity of the ideology. However, field evidence suggests a higher likelihood of the “Complete Isolation” scenario occurring in the near future.