Defensive Future Studies

Defensive Future Studies

Social security scenarios in the border areas of the Islamic Republic of Iran and the Republic of Azerbaijan in the horizon of 1414

Document Type : Original Article

Authors
morteza pajhouhanfar 1
Mohsen Muradyan 2
Abdul Reza Adhami 3
1 PhD student in Political Sociology, Islamic Azad University (North Tehran Branch), Tehran, Iran.
2 Assistant Professor of Strategic Management. National University, Tehran, Iran
3 Associate Professor of Sociology, Islamic Azad University (North Tehran Branch), Tehran, Iran
10.22034/dfsr.2024.2023520.1774
Abstract
Purpose: The ties of border area residents with the other side of the border and various vulnerabilities in the country's surrounding area have given these areas a special place and importance. Therefore, the researcher seeks to explain the social security scenarios of border areas with Azerbaijan.
Methodology: The current research was carried out in terms of practical purpose and in terms of nature and exploratory descriptive method with the approach of "analysis of the effects of trends and analysis of mutual effects". Research experts and experts include (9) researchers and university professors in this field. Regarding the method of data collection and analysis; The researcher first investigated the social security of the border areas with the Republic of Azerbaijan by reviewing the literature and got the approval of the experts, and then used the expert panels in the MICMAC software to analyze the data and agreed on the scenarios in a joint meeting with the consensus of the experts.
Findings: In the time horizon of 1414, the occurrence of the first scenario, "Everlasting Spring Cypress", "Justice and Community Security" and "National Solidarity and Islamic-Revolutionary Identity", the second scenario, "Agaqia Tree", "Relative Weakness of Justice and Community Security" and "National Solidarity" and fragile Islamic-revolutionary identity", the third scenario, "weakness of justice and security of society" and "lack of national solidarity and forgetting of Islamic-revolutionary identity" and the fourth scenario, "chicken claw weed", "lack of national solidarity and Islamic-revolutionary identity" and " Lack of justice and security of society" are likely.
Conclusion: Based on the findings, the occurrence of the miraculous evergreen cypress scenario and the catastrophic chicken paw weed scenario are more likely in the time horizon of 1414, and in order to improve the social security of the border areas of Iran and Azerbaijan, facilitating strategies for the occurrence of the first scenario (miraculous) on the one hand and On the other hand, coping strategies should be developed to prevent the emergence of the second, third (pessimistic) and fourth (catastrophic) scenarios in the time horizon of 1414
Keywords
Scenario
social security
border areas
Azerbaijan
Subjects
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  • Receive Date 22 February 2024
  • Revise Date 21 May 2024
  • Accept Date 31 May 2024
  • Publish Date 21 June 2024