Defensive Future Studies

Defensive Future Studies

Foresight of Cognitive Warfare with a Focus on Women in Light of Historical Evolution

Document Type : Original Article

Authors
somayeh kerdari 1
mahmoud vaezi 2
hamidreza nadi 3
1 PhD student of Quranic Sciences and Hadith, University of Tehran, Iran.
2 Associate Professor of Quranic and Hadith Studies, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran,)
3 Associate Professor of National Security, Farabi College of Science and Technology, Tehran, Iran
10.22034/dfsr.2025.2067213.1928
Abstract
Objective: The main objective of this research is to explore future directions in the study of cognitive warfare, with a particular focus on women, considering its historical evolution.
Method:This study develops future scenarios of cognitive warfare centered on women, using the ScenarioWizard software and taking into account the historical development of the field. The research is applied in nature and employs an exploratory approach using novel methods in future studies.
Data were collected through two main methods: documentary research (reviewing historical, religious, and interdisciplinary texts) and questionnaires. The questionnaire is closed-ended and designed as a cross-impact matrix, as the ScenarioWizard software is used for data analysis. It surveys the opinions of experts and specialists.
Ultimately, eight key drivers were incorporated into ScenarioWizard, and after multiple analyses and consultations with the expert community, four plausible and robust scenarios were identified.
Findings: The study identifies four distinct future scenarios ranging from critical to favorable. These scenarios indicate that women's roles in cognitive warfare manifest at two major levels: as victims and as active agents. Cultural structures, policy orientation, and the level of cognitive literacy emerged as the principal driving forces shaping these divergent futures.
Conclusion: The findings emphasize that enhancing women's cognitive literacy, advancing supportive cultural and educational policies, establishing intelligent monitoring systems, and fostering inter-institutional collaboration are critical for effectively countering hybrid cognitive threats. Neglecting women's strategic capacity in this domain may result in heightened psychological vulnerability, weakened social cohesion, and reduced national cognitive resilience.
Keywords
Cognitive Warfare
Women
Futurology
Cultural Security
Cognitive Resilience

Subjects

-    Abrahamian, Ervand. (1982). Iran Between Two Revolutions. Princeton University Press. URL: https://press.princeton.edu/books/ebook
-    Abyar, Zahra. (1399). "Pandasht-e Zanan-e Irani darbareh-ye Hejab, Bar Asas Konash-e Motaghaabel-e Namadin." PhD Thesis, Daneshgah-e Adyan va Mazahib, Qom. [In Persian] URL: https://old.urd.ac.ir/fa/cont
-Afrough, Mohsen. (1402). "Olguhaye Jang-e Shenakhti dar Movaajehe ba Zanan-e Irani; Chaleshhaye Hoviyati va Rahkarhaye Moqavemat-e Ejtemaei." Faslname-ye Motaleat-e Farhangi-ye Paydari, 2(3). [In Persian] URL: https://rimag.ir/fa/Article/49623
-    Ameli, S. R. (2021). Globalization of Culture and Islamic Identity. Tehran: SAMT Publications. URL  https://www.samt.ac.ir/Globalization-of-Culture-and-Islamic-Identity
-     Amer, M, Daim, T. U, & Jetter, A. (2013). A review of scenario planning. Futures, 46: 23-40. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2012.10.003
-    Ariton, L. (2025). Cognitive warfare in the digital age: Implications for EU security policy. Knowledge-Based Organization, 31(1), 1–9. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/kbo-2025-0001
-    Backes, O, & Swab, A. (2023). Cognitive warfare and the ethics of mental manipulation. Ethics and Information Technology, 25(1): 1-11. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10676-023-09717-7
-    Bernal, V, Carter, J, Singh, R, Cao, X, & Madreperla, S. (2023). Cognitive warfare: An ethical analysis. Ethics and Information Technology. Charles Sturt University Research Output. URL: https://researchoutput.csu.edu.au/files/379407776/379357837_Published_article.pdf    https://doi.org/10.1007/s10676-023-09717-7
-    Bouzari-Nejad, Yahya & Eghbali, Abolfazl. (1402). "Hoviyat-e Jensiyati-ye Zananeh (Zananegi) dar Sireh-ye Hazrat Zahra (S)." Zan dar Tose’e va Siyasat, 2(21): 305-327. [In Persian] DOI: https://doi.org/10.22059/jwdp.2023.355729.1008317
-    Buchanan, R, & Hudock, A. (2006). Democracy and the Role of International Organizations: A Gender Perspective. London: Zed Books. 54. URL: https://www.worldcat.org/title/70045564
-    Chermack, T. J. (2005). Scenario planning in organizations: How to create, use, and assess scenarios: Berrett-Koehler Publishers. URL: https://www.bkconnection.com/books/title/scenario-planning-in-organizations
-    Claverie, C, & du Cluzel, F. (2022). The Concept of Cognitive Warfare. NATO Innovation Hub. URL: https://innovationhub-act.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/CW-article-Claverie-du-Cluzel-final_0.pdf
-    Curtin, Philip D. (1964). The Image of Africa: British Ideas and Action, 1780-1850. Madison: University of Wisconsin Press. URL: https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-1-349-00539-0
-    Danyk, Y, & Briggs, C. M. (2023). Modern cognitive operations and hybrid warfare. Journal of Strategic Security, 16(1): 35–50. DOI: https://doi.org/10.5038/1944-0472.16.1.2032
-    Darvishi-Sehtelani, Farhad & Hemmati, Zohreh. (1397). "Senaryo-haye Pish-ruye Hozoor-e Zanan-e Irani dar Arseh-ye Siasat 1396-1406: Yek Barrasi-ye Ayandeh-Pazhuhaneh." Zan dar Tose’e va Siyasat, 16(3): 379-396. [In Persian] DOI: https://doi.org/10.22059/jwdp.2018.250405.1007362
-    Davoodabadi, Mehdi & Ahmadi, Fatemeh. (1394). "Baznamayi-ye Naqsh-e Zan dar Sinemay-e Defa’-e Moghadas; az Vaqe’iyat ta Namayesh." Faslname-ye Marefat Farhangi Ejtemaei, 7(27): 95-115. [In Persian] URL: https://ensani.ir/fa/article/375404
-    Deppe, C, & Schaal, G. S. (2024). Cognitive warfare: a conceptual analysis of the NATO ACT cognitive warfare exploratory concept. Frontiers in Big Data, 7, 1452129. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3389/fdata.2024.1452129
-    Fouladi-Vanda, Mohammad. (1396). "Barrasi-ye Enteqadi-ye Sanad-e Tose’e Paydar 2030 UNESCO; Asar va Payamad-ha-ye An." Faslname-ye Marefat Farhangi Ejtemaei, 8(3): 73-98. [In Persian] URL: https://marefatefarhangi.nashriyat.ir/node/313
-    Ghazali, Mohammad. (1393). *Tahafot al-Falasfeh (Nogsan-e Falsafeh-Pishgan)*, 5th ed. Tehran: Jami. [In Persian]
-    Godet, M. (2000). The art of scenarios and strategic planning: Tools and pitfalls. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 65(1): URL & DOI: https://www.iranketab.ir/book/39964-tahafot-ol-falasefe
 https://doi.org/10.1016/S0040-1625(99)00120-1
-    Haji-Zadeh, Sirous. (1401). "Tabyin-e Zamineh-i, Nazari, Mafhumi va Karbordi-ye Jang-e Shenakhti: Motale’eh-ye Mored-i Rusiyeh." Dofaslname-ye Bazi-ye Jang, 5(10): 103-143. [In Persian] URL: http://www.ijwg.ir/
-    Harari, Yuval Noah. (1397). “Ensan-e Kheradmand: Tarikh-e Mokhtasar-e Bashar”, Translated by Nik Gargin. Tehran: Nashr-e No. [In Persian] URL: https://s10.picofile.com/file/
-    Helmus, T. C, Bodine‑Baron, E, Radin, A, Magnuson, M, Mendelsohn, J, Marcellino, W, Bega, A, & Winkelman, Z. (2018). Russian Social Media Influence: Understanding Russian Propaganda in Eastern Europe (RR‑2237‑OSD). RAND Corporation. URL: https://doi.org/10.7249/RR2237
-Hennink, M. M, Kaiser, B. N, & Marconi, V. C. (2017). Code saturation versus meaning saturation: how many interviews are enough? Qualitative Health Research, 27(4), 591–608. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.socscimed.2021.114523
-    Hoodfar, Homa & Shakeri, Seyyed Reza. (1378). "Ahdaf va Barnameha: Naqsh-e Zanan dar Siyasat-haye Jam’iyati-ye Iran." Faslname-ye Motaleat-e Rahbordi, 2(5,6): 201-216. [In Persian] URL: https://quarterly.risstudies.org/article_1309.html?lang=fa
-    Ibn Esḥāq, Mohammad. (1400q). "Al-Sirah al-Nabawiyah". Beirut: Dar al-Kutub al-‘Ilmiyah. [In Persian] URL: https://noorlib.ir/book/info/86572
-    Ibrahim, F, Rhode, S, & Daseking, M. (2023). A Systematic Review Of Cognitive And Psychological Warfare. The Defence Horizon Journal. URL & DOI: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10205600 https://zenodo.org/records/10205600
-    Kahneman, Daniel. (1400). "Tafakor-e Sari’ va Kond", Translated by Fatemeh Omidi. Tehran: Nashr-e Novin. [In Persian] URL: https://nashrenovin.ir/product/thinking-fast-and-slow-daniel-kahneman
-    Kalantari, Fathollah. (1399). "Goneh-Shenasi-ye Tahdid-haye Hybrid va Karbast-e An dar Sothooh-e Amniyat-e J. E. Iran." Faslname-ye Elmi-ye Amniyat-e Melli, 10(38): 255-292. [In Persian] DOR: https://dor.isc.ac/dor/20.1001.1.33292538.1399.10.38.9.4
-Keddie, Nikki R. (1996). Religion and Rebellion in Iran: The Tobacco Protest of 1891-1892. Frank Cass. URL: https://archive.org/details/religionrebellio0000nikk
-    Khamseh, Abbas & Rajabi, Mehdi. (1396). "Shenasaei va Olaviat-bandi-ye Avamel-e Rahbordi-ye Moaser bar Boroon-Sapari-ye Projeh-haye R&D dar Sanaye Defa’i ba Rookard-e Ayandeh-Pazhuheshi." Ayandeh-Pazhuheshi-ye Defa’i, 2(4): 63-86. [In Persian] URL  https://www.dfsr.ir/article_30742.html
-    Lashgar-Ara, Hamed; Satari-Khah, Ali; & Veisi, Omid. (1404). "Senaryo-haye Mohtamel-e Hooshmandsazi-ye Samaneh Amad va Poshtibani-ye Niru-ye Zamini-ye Artesh Jomhuri-ye Eslami Iran dar Ofoq 1410." Ayandeh-Pazhuheshi-ye Defa’i, 10(36): 35-63. [In Persian] DOI: https://doi.org/10.22034/dfsr.2024.2045079.1848
-Mietzner, D, & Reger, G. (2005). Advantages and disadvantages of scenario approaches for strategic foresight. International Journal of Technology Intelligence and Planning, 1(2): 220–239. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1504/IJTIP.2005.006516
-    Mohammadpour, Ahmad. (1391). "Motale’e-ye Neshaneh-Shenakhti-ye Baznamayi-ye Zan dar Film-e Sinemayi-ye Iran." Motale’at-e Farhangi va Ertebatat, 8(29): 41-70. [In Persian] URL  https://www.jcsc.ir/article_15472.html
-    Nasr, Seyyed Hossein. (2002). "Ghalb-e Islam", Seyed Mohammad Sadegh Kharazi, 5th ed. Tehran: Nashr-e Ney. [In Persian] URL: https://nashreney.com/product
-    NATO ACT. (2021). Cognitive warfare: The invisible threat. NATO Allied Command Transformation White Paper. URL: https://innovationhub-act.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/NATO-CSO-CW-2021-10-26.pdf
-     Nye, J. S. (2004). Soft Power: The Means to Success in World Politics. PublicAffairs. URL: https://www.almendron.com/tribuna/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/joseph-s-nye-jr-soft-power.pdf
-    Ottewell, P. (2021). Cognitive warfare and the use of force. Den norske Atlanterhavskomité. URL: https://www.atlanterhavskomiteen.no/ukens-analyse/cognitive-warfare-and-the-use-of-force
-    Parvazian, Gill, & Chiera, B. (2017). Higher Education, Women, and Sociocultural Change: A Closer Look at the Statistics. SAGE Open, 7(2): 1-16. DOI  https://doi.org/10.1177/2158244017700230
-    Rahimi, Saleh. (1403). "Jang-Shenakhti va Tahdid-haye Tarkeebi dar Cheshmandaz-e Ayandeh: Mafahim, Abzarha va Rahkarhaye Pishgiraneh." Ayandeh-Pazhuheshi-ye Defa’i. [In Persian] DOI: https://doi.org/10.22034/dfsr.2024.2041829.1830
-    Runyan, A. S, & Sanders, R. (2021). Prospects for Realizing International Women’s Rights Law Through Local Governance: the Case of Cities for CEDAW. Global Social Policy, 21(1): 50-70. DOI & URL: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12142-021-00635-z https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC8417664/
-    Shabadini-Pashaki, Mohammad & Chegni, Hasan. (1397). "Rahbordi-haye Moqabele-ye Payambar-e Azam ba Jang-e Ravani-ye Doshmanan." Rasekhoon. [In Persian] URL: https://rasekhoon.net/article/show/1357584
-Siti Aulia, S, Suyato, M, & Arpannudin, I. (۲۰۲۴). Women in gender equality movement: a systematic literature review. Frontiers in Sociology. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3389/fsoc.2024.1432383