Defensive Future Studies

Defensive Future Studies

Scenario Mapping for the Application of Blockchain Technology in the Human Capital Development of the Islamic Republic of Iran Army

Document Type : Original Article

Authors
Behnam Golshahi 1
Amirhossein Dorbahani 2
1 Associate Prof in HRM, IRI Military Command and Staff University, Tehran, Iran
2 Master of Business Administration, Science and research university, Tehran, Iran.
10.22034/dfsr.2025.2068588.1936
Abstract
Background and Purpose: The advent of emerging technologies has positioned blockchain as a transformative tool capable of making human capital development processes more transparent, secure, and data-driven. Within military organizations, blockchain can serve as a safeguard against credential forgery, inflated or inaccurate performance assessments, and informational inefficiencies, while simultaneously strengthening trust, equity, and accountability. Against this backdrop, the present study aims to map plausible scenarios for the application of blockchain technology in advancing human capital within the Islamic Republic of Iran Army.
Methodology: This developmental–applied study adopts a descriptive–causal research design. The methodological approach integrates a systematic review of the literature on blockchain applications in human capital development with fuzzy cognitive mapping. Data for the cross-impact analysis were collected through questionnaires administered to 14 subject-matter experts in human resource management and information technology within the Army. The qualitative component was analyzed using thematic analysis, while the fuzzy cognitive mapping was executed using FCMapper and Python 3.11. Through thematic coding, the study identified key success factors, which were subsequently used to construct potential blockchain application scenarios via fuzzy cognitive mapping.
Findings: The analysis revealed four critical factors shaping human capital development: (1) application of blockchain technology, (2) organizational competency development, (3) professional ethics, and (4) interpersonal skills. The relational network among these factors was visually mapped, resulting in the identification of three probable scenarios for blockchain integration into human capital development.
Conclusion: The findings indicate that three distinct scenarios— “Digital Armor,” “Silent Breach,” and “Core Collapse”— represent potential pathways for implementing blockchain technology in the human capital development of the Army. Adopting a scenario-based strategic planning approach can enable the gradual, adaptive, and targeted deployment of this technology, ensuring alignment with organizational objectives and operational realities
Keywords
"Blockchain
Human Capital Development
Thematic Analysis
Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping (FCM)"

Subjects

 
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