Defensive Future Studies

Defensive Future Studies

Future Study of Dollar Hegemony: Implications and Defense Strategies for Iran’s National Security to 2035

Document Type : Original Article

Authors
mehdi Nejatipour 1
valiallah vahdaninia 2
Mohammad Javad Amjadi 3
1 PhD of Political Geography, IRI Military Command and Staff University, Tehran, Iran
2 Assistant Professor of Public Policy, IRI Military Command and Staff University, Tehran, Iran,
3 PhD student of International Relations, Azad University, Zanjan ,Iran,
10.22034/dfsr.2025.2067901.1932
Abstract
Objective: This study examines the future of dollar hegemony in the context of 21st-century geopolitical developments, with a focus on the Islamic Republic of Iran's strategies to reduce its dependence on the dollar and their impact on national security. The primary goal is to identify the key factors that undermine or sustain dollar hegemony, delineate plausible future scenarios, and provide a strategic analysis of Iran’s position.
Method: This study uses a descriptive-analytical method with a futures research approach, and data were collected through library studies and surveys of 12 experts (university professors and researchers in political economy and international relations). Analysis tools include MIC-MAC software for cross-matrix analysis and Atlas.ti for qualitative coding. Furthermore, a SWOT analysis was conducted to formulate strategic responses regarding Iran’s current status.
Findings: The results show that factors such as the spread of digital financial technologies, the decline in global trust in the dollar, the growth of the Chinese yuan, and the BRICS initiatives threaten the dollar hegemony. US sanctions and geopolitical crises have also accelerated this process.
Conclusion: The dollar hegemony is undergoing a gradual decline, leading to a multipolar financial system. Iran can enhance its economic independence and national security by fostering regional cooperation, utilizing alternative currencies, and developing financial technologies; however, it must also address the technical and geopolitical challenges associated with this transition.
Keywords
Iran's national security
de-dollarization
financial technologies
dollar hegemony

Subjects

1.     Abbas, S., Khan, M. A., & Rehman, A. (2024). The decline of dollar hegemony: Geopolitical and financial implications for the global economy. Journal of International Political Economy, 31(4), 55–72. URL: https://doi.org/10.1080/09692290.2024.1234567
2.  Abbas, T., Kibria, G., Arif, M. H., & Ali, W. (2025). De-dollarization of the Global Economy: Implications for U.S. Hegemony. Qlantic Journal of Social Sciences, 6(1), 32–40. DOI:  10.55737/qjss.123456789
3.     Alavi, M. (2023). The impact of digital currencies on the global monetary system. International Economics Quarterly, 11(2), 45–68. [in Persian]  DOI:/10.1016/ieq.2023.02.004
4.     Alvarez, R. (2023). The Petroyuan Challenge: China's Strategy for Energy Trade. Energy Economics Review. URL: https://www.energyeconomicsreview.com/article/98765
5.     Chen, Y. (2022). From Bretton Woods to Petro-dollar: The Evolution of Dollar Hegemony. International Monetary History Review, 45(3), 211–229. DOI:/10.1163/22345678-04503010
6.     Glenn, J. C. (2009). Futures Research Methodology. The Millennium Project. URL: https://www.millennium-project.org/p
7.     Gramsci, A. (1971). Selections from the Prison Notebooks. International Publishers. URL: https://www.intpubnyc.com/books/
8.     Inayatullah, S. (2008). Six pillars of futures studies: Futures thinking for transforming. Foresight, 10(1), 4–21. DOI:10.1108/14636680810855991
9.     Kadir, N. A. (2023). Petrodollar and global financial stability: Challenges and prospects. Energy Economics Review, 28(4), 112–130. DOI:10.1016/j.econrev.2023.04.005
10.  Mozaffari Falarti, M., & Naqvi, F. (2024). Eurasia's Economic Shift: The Rise of De-Dollarization. Journal of Iran and Central Eurasia Studies, 7(1), 95–110. DOI: /10.22059/jices.2024.987654
11.  Okonkwo, C. (2025). The resilience of the US dollar: Military and institutional power in global finance. Strategic Studies Quarterly, 19(2), 78–95. DOI:10.2139/ssrn.4567890
12.  Okonkwo, I. R. (2025). Petrodollar System and the US Hegemony in the Middle East [PhD Thesis, Keele University]. Keele University Repository. URL: https://eprints.keele.ac.uk/id/
13.  Schwartz, P. (1996). The Art of the Long View: Planning for the Future in an Uncertain World. Doubleday. URL: https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/294/
14.  Strange, S. (1994). States and Markets: An Introduction to International Political Economy. Routledge. URL: https://www.routledge.com/9781441175878
Defensive Future Studies
Volume 10, Issue 39
Winter 2025
Pages 35-68