Purpose: The technological rivalry between the United States and the People’s Republic of China has, over the past two decades, become one of the strategic determinants shaping the future international order. This competition extends beyond economics, encompassing geopolitical, security, and normative dimensions. The present study, using a qualitative and futures-oriented approach, aims to identify the key drivers of this rivalry and examine its potential implications for international security and Iran’s position.
Methodology: The study employed systematic content analysis. Data were collected from more than 75 peer-reviewed academic articles, 42 reports from leading think tanks, and 20 analytical documents. The selection criteria focused on scientific credibility and direct relevance to the subject. For analysis, the cross-impact technique and the Global Business Network (GBN) scenario-planning model were applied.
Findings: The results indicate that China, through extensive investment in research and development, the expansion of digital infrastructures, and advances in areas such as semiconductors, artificial intelligence, and 5G, has consolidated its position as a technological power. The United States, in response, has sought to curb this trajectory through sanctions, export controls on sensitive technologies, and alliance-building. The analysis highlights three main scenarios: “Cold Balance in Technology,” “East–West Technological Divide,” and “Digital Cold War.”
Conclusion: Among the scenarios, the “Cold Balance in Technology” is assessed as the most favorable outcome for both international security and Iran. It maintains a competitive environment while enabling technological engagement and preventing the escalation of crises and rising defense expenditures.