Defensive Future Studies

Defensive Future Studies

Developing geopolitical scenarios for Iran-Afghanistan relations in the Taliban era

Document Type : Original Article

Authors
Hamidreza Golsoomiyan 1
Yadullah Karimipoor 2
Hosein Rabiee 3
Afshin Mottaghi 4
1 Phd Student in Political Geography, Faculty of Geography, Kharazmi University, Tehran, Iran
2 Professor of Political Geography, Faculty of Geographical Sciences, Kharazmi University, Tehran, Iran
3 Associate Professor of Political Geography, Faculty of Geographical Sciences, Kharazmi University, Tehran, Iran
4 Professor, of Political Geography, Faculty of Geographical Sciences, Kharazmi University, Tehran, Iran
10.22034/dfsr.2025.2058308.1898
Abstract
Objective: This research was conducted with a mixed approach (quantitative-qualitative) to develop geopolitical scenarios for Iran-Afghanistan relations in the Taliban era.
Method: Data were collected through library research, semi-structured interviews with experts, and a researcher-developed questionnaire. For data analysis, the study utilized Micmac software (for analyzing the cross-impact of key factors) and Scenario Wizard (for simulating future scenarios).
Findings: By identifying 24 probable situations linked to six key factors (migration, recognition of the Taliban, border tensions, water rights of border rivers, Chabahar transit security, and the role of major powers), over 4,510 combined scenarios were extracted. The final results revealed four scenarios with "strong consistency" as the most probable future trajectories: Critical scenario (33.33% likelihood): Characterized by illegal migration, the Helmand water conflict, competition among foreign powers, and border insecurity, transforming Afghanistan into a "security black hole" and triggering socio-economic crises in Iran. Semi-critical scenario (28.14% likelihood). Static scenario (28.57% likelihood): Marked by "fragile stability," normalizing tensions such as water and border disputes. Favorable scenario (23.80% likelihood): Achievable through multilateral diplomacy, conditional recognition of the Taliban, and linking Chabahar to Afghanistan, enabling regional convergence.
Conclusion: The results indicate that the dominance of critical trends undermines Iran’s strategic position as the "Gateway to Central Asia" and jeopardizes border security. However, the favorable scenario demonstrates that economic-security cooperation and mediation by international institutions could transform Afghanistan from a proxy battleground into a communication bridge. This study emphasizes the necessity of breaking the cycle of tension and prioritizing long-term interests.
Keywords
Iran
Afghanistan
Future Studies
Geopolitics
Subjects

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Defensive Future Studies
Volume 10, Issue 39
Winter 2025
Pages 203-234