Defensive Future Studies

Defensive Future Studies

Detecting the weak signals of future wars through mathematical analysis of the global financial markets data

Document Type : Original Article

Authors
Abouzar Seifi Kalestan 1
Amir Hossein Ghatari 2
1 Associate Professor of Futures Studies,. National Defense University, Tehran, Iran.
2 Graduated PhD in Statistics, Amirkabir University, Tehran, Iran
10.22034/dfsr.2025.2044580.1846
Abstract
Objective: Weak Signals (WS) of war are spread much earlier than its Strong signals, which are sounds of gunshots and explosions. The global financial markets are the most sensitive and influential arena in complex relationships of the world, which contain WS of possible future wars. In this Research, we aim to explore a mathematical-statistical methodology for possible future war prediction.
Method: Using the statistical methods of data analysis, correlation analysis, and regression models, the possibility of a statistical definition of WS before the outbreak of a war was investigated with a case study of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. using financial market data in the period before the war, definable statistical patterns were investigated as financial market behavior changes as WS of the coming probable war.
Findings: Most of the domestic and foreign markets had a statistical correlation, and the time series charts indicated that the markets showed different behaviors before the war. according to regression models, Bitcoin has a negative correlation with the stock market, which is controlled by two other variables. Finally, by using the confidence interval method, some observations outside the normal range of the market were identified, which are called financial markets WS.
Conclusion: The presented model can identify and predict unexpected events such as the Russia-Ukraine war. In addition, the proposed methodology, focusing on cloud confidence intervals and modified regression models, can provide valuable information about future probable wars
 
Keywords
Weak Signal
Financial Markets
Market Fluctuation
Time Series Regression

Subjects

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Defensive Future Studies
Volume 10, Issue 38
Autumn 2025
Pages 1-43