Defensive Future Studies

Defensive Future Studies

Possible scenario of the military threats of the Zionist regime on the horizon of 1410

Document Type : Original Article

Authors
ebrahim ijabi 1
mehran Hafezzadeh 2
Navid Namdari 3
reza karimian 4
1 Associate Professor of Futures Studies, IRI Military Command and Staff University, Tehran, Iran,
2 Ph.D. Student in Defense Management, IRI Military Command and Staff University, Tehran, Iran,
3 Master's degree in defense management, IRI Military Command and Staff University, Tehran, Iran
4 Master's degree in accounting, Kharazmi University, Tehran, Iran
10.22034/dfsr.2024.2047126.1858
Abstract
Objective: One of the threats that have endangered the interests and security of the Islamic Republic of Iran is the threat of the Zionist regime. Considering the uncertainties of the future، the current research is looking for possible scenarios of military threats of the Zionist regime against Iran to identify and deal with these threats before or during the threat.
Methodology: This research has been analyzed using quantitative and qualitative methods. The tools of interviewing 10 experts using questionnaires for 69 people from the sample community and studying documents have been used to collect information. The type of applied research is a descriptive method and a mixed approach، which after collecting information from the mentioned sources، has been purified، deduced، and judged، and at the end of the analysis، it has been finalized.
Findings: Four scenario plans were predicted، and according to the analysis of documents for each plan، five key factors were obtained.
Conclusion: The results of the research showed that the four possible scenarios for Israel to threaten the Islamic Republic of Iran in order of importance are:
First scenario: Israel's massive missile attack on infrastructure، nuclear centers، and all military and civilian centers.
Second scenario: Nuclear attacks on sensitive and vital cities and centers
Keywords
scenario writing
Military threats
uncertainty
Driver
1410 horizon

Subjects

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Defensive Future Studies
Volume 10, Issue 36
Spring 2025
Pages 167-203