Defensive Future Studies

Defensive Future Studies

Scenarios of Iraqi participation and cooperation in the Persian Gulf Cooperation Council based on key uncertainties

Document Type : Original Article

Authors
1 Associate Professor of Strategic Defense Sciences, Supreme National Defense University, Tehran, Iran.
2 PhD student in Strategic Defense Sciences, Supreme National Defense University, Tehran, Iran.
Abstract
Objective:. The scenario is always based on uncertainty, for this reason, the main goal of this research is to compile four scenarios of Iraq's participation and cooperation in the Persian Gulf Cooperation Council based on key uncertainties.
Methodology:The type of developmental-applied research has been done in a prospective and qualitative way. . The collection of information is library and field and the sample size is 36 people.
Findings: two factors, i.e., the economic integration of Iraq with the Persian Gulf Cooperation Council (with an uncertainty value of 18.5 and importance: 17.5) and the expansion of Iraq's political cooperation with Arab countries and creating a common understanding of collective security without the involvement of extra-regional governments. with uncertainty value of 17.5 and significance: 18.2); have been identified as key uncertainties. Originality: Iraq's participation and cooperation scenarios in the Persian Gulf Cooperation Council include: A- Scenario A: above the sky (transformation or miracle scenario), B- Scenario B: leaning on the wind (scenario without surprises), C- Scenario C: in the arms of a tree (optimistic scenario), t-scenario T: pakbakhteh (disaster scenario).
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