South Caucasus security arrangements (future opportunities and challenges)

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 Assistant Prof. in Command and Staff University. Tehran. Iran.

2 Research Institute, Tehran, Iran.

Abstract

The South Caucasus is extremely important for the European Union, America, Russia and other regional actors from the geopolitical and geoeconomic point of view. this region has been the focus of important security developments that have created potential and actual threats and opportunities for the Republic of Iran.
The current research is aimed at identifying the scenarios regarding the security arrangements of the South Caucasus with a focus on the Ukraine crisis and with a mixed future-research methodology. In this regard, the number of 7 main regional actors and 3 extra-regional main actors were identified, and then with the logic of the cross-effects matrix, the number of 10 priority variables was identified, and then the amount of their direct and indirect effects was calculated and analyzed and evaluated. .
The findings of the research indicate that out of the 10 important regional and extra-regional actors, two countries, Turkey and the Republic of Azerbaijan, will play a role as key elements and Russia as a driving force in the security equations of the South Caucasus region.

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