Scenarios of the 1400 Presidential Elections of the Islamic Republic of Iran based on the perspective of National Security

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 Assistant Prof. & Faculty Member of the Higher National Defense University

2 MSc. of Toloue Mehr qom University

Abstract

Elections are considered as the main symbol of democracy in the countries with democratic systems and It forms the foundation of national security and political stability in such a democratic society. in addition, since how the process of holding elections and participation in it is an indicator of social capital for sovereign systems, one of the most important factors in the national security discourse is considered national security. The present study outlines the 1400 presidential election scenarios from a national security look. the aim of this study is to delineate the probable states facing the presidential election , and the avoidance of exposure in passive conditions . In this study, the literature review, observation and interviews. Likewise, the scenarios have been explained by utilizing the experts’ expertise through a host of factors and agents influencing the elections as well as influential fifteen actors and their ideals, and identifying Eightee driving forces and Three key uncertainties and the frameworks for scenarios. The Experts panel in this research were experts in futures studies, political sciences and international relations. Based on their views, four scenarios of “dull sunset”, “on the verge sunrise”, "slow slip" and "horrific slide" were identifies

Keywords

References

 
Smith, Stere. (2006). The Concept of security in a globalizing
world, in Patman, Robert G. Globalization and Conflict, London and
New York: Routledge, 33-55.

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