Exploring Key Uncertainties Shaping the Future of Afghan Migration to the Islamic Republic of Iran

Samiie, Saied; Kazemi, Masoumeh

doi:10.22034/dfsr.2026.2081700.1995

Exploring Key Uncertainties Shaping the Future of Afghan Migration to the Islamic Republic of Iran

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

Saied Samiie

Masoumeh kazemi

Futures Studies, Faculty of Governance, College of Management, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran

10.22034/dfsr.2026.2081700.1995

Abstract

Background and Objective: The migration of Afghans to Iran is one of the most persistent and influential migration flows in the region, shaped by a variety of factors. The aim of this study is to identify the most important uncertainties affecting the future management of Afghan nationals’ migration to Iran over a 10-year horizon.
Methods: This applied, analytical–exploratory study was conducted using a mixed-methods approach. Data were collected through library research, an expert panel, and in-depth interviews with experts in the political, security, economic, and social fields. The relationships among the variables were analyzed using MICMAC software.
Findings: In the first stage, 40 factors influencing the future of migration were identified within eight main dimensions at two levels—Afghanistan and Iran. Structural analysis revealed that approximately 64% of the relationships among variables had direct or potential influence. Among these factors, four key uncertainties were identified: Iran’s macro-level approaches toward migrants, the policy time horizon, international recognition of the Taliban government, and the degree of public order and stability in Afghanistan.
Conclusions: The results showed that the future of Afghan nationals’ migration to Iran is shaped not by the individual effect of these factors, but by their interactions. The simultaneous occurrence of instability in Afghanistan, non-recognition of the Taliban, a containment-oriented approach, and reactive policymaking may intensify social, border, and security risks. In contrast, a development-oriented approach and comprehensive, forward-looking policymaking can increase the management capacity and resilience of the migration system, even under conditions of instability.

Keywords

Uncertainty

Migration

Afghanistan

Structural Analysis

Migration Policymaking

Subjects

Futures studies of defense policies; policy planning, policy impact assessments, etc.

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