Objective: The transformation of the security environment in Southwest Asia and the emergence of new regional alliances have caused deterrence to move beyond the classical military paradigm toward networked, hybrid, and cross-domain structures. Within this framework, the Islamic Republic of Iran has gradually moved toward a form of “networked deterrence” based on cyber capabilities, unmanned aerial systems, intelligence capacities, geoeconomic instruments, and regional depth. This study aims to analyze future scenarios of Iran’s smart balancing strategy in response to emerging regional alliances.
Methodology: This research adopts a qualitative, comparative, and foresight-oriented approach. Data were collected through the analysis of strategic documents, security reports, and scientific sources. Structural analysis and cross-impact analysis were employed to identify key driving forces; comparative indicator development was used to assess deterrence capacities; and scenario construction was conducted through the logic of critical uncertainties and sensitivity analysis...
Findings: The findings indicate that “Sustainable Smart Balancing,” based on networked deterrence, cross-domain capabilities, and strategic resilience, represents the most favorable scenario for Iran in confronting emerging regional alliances.
Conclusion: The findings indicate that the scenario of “Sustainable Smart Balancing” represents the most desirable pathway for maintaining Iran’s deterrence capacity, preventing escalation of tensions, and managing multidimensional competition in the emerging security environment of Southwest Asia.