Defensive Future Studies

Defensive Future Studies

Hypersonic Weapons and Their Threats to Strategic Stability by the Horizon 2040

Document Type : Original Article

Author
Seyed Mehdi Alavi
PHD Student of Defense Management, IRI Military Command and Staff University, Tehran, Iran
10.22034/dfsr.2026.2088643.2015
Abstract
Background and Objective: This article focuses on the structural implications of hypersonic weapons, examining the impact of this technology on strategic stability within the international system and outlining alternative futures up to the horizon of 2040. The research problem is that hypersonics are not merely a technological upgrade in speed; rather, by compressing decision-making time, increasing ambiguity regarding origin, destination, and warhead type, and deepening the gap between offensive weapons and defense systems, they are fundamentally transforming the classical logic of deterrence.
Methods: The research adopts a qualitative approach based on directed content analysis. From 128 identified sources, 84 valid scientific and strategic sources were selected after refinement, yielding over 62 initial codes. Through the selective coding process, three key drivers—namely "strategic instability," "ineffectiveness of missile defense systems," and "unintended escalation and strategic ambiguity"—were identified and converted into core uncertainties. Subsequently, employing three-dimensional scenario building and Causal Layered Analysis, eight alternative scenarios were designed, ranging from instability in an environment of autonomous command and control systems and arms racing to the formation of institutional cooperation and deterrence based on effective active defense.
Findings: The findings indicate that the future of strategic stability depends less on fixed technical characteristics and more on technological governance, the level of system autonomy, strategic transparency, and the degree of international cooperation.
Conclusions: underscores the necessity of redefining the concept of strategic stability in a multipolar environment and emphasizes human control, preventive diplomacy, and confidence-building regimes to manage the risks of unintended escalation.
Keywords
threat
Hypersonic
Hypersonic Weapons,
Strategic Stability
Subjects
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Defensive Future Studies
Volume 11, Issue 41
Summer 2026
Pages 1-39