Identifying and prioritizing emerging information-communication technological drivers effective in Iran's defense security 2035

Koulivand, Khalil; Anoosheh, Morteza; Anisseh, Mohammad; Nasirzade, Aziz

doi:10.22034/dfsr.2025.2067124.1927

Identifying and prioritizing emerging information-communication technological drivers effective in Iran's defense security 2035

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

Khalil Koulivand ¹

Morteza Anoosheh ²

Mohammad Anisseh ²

Aziz nasirzade ³

¹ PhD Student in Futures Studies, Imam Khomeini International University, Qazvin, Iran

² Assistant Professor of Industrial Management, Imam Khomeini International University, Qazvin, Iran

³ Associate Professor of Defense Management, Command and Staff University of the Islamic Republic of Iran Army, Tehran, Iran

10.22034/dfsr.2025.2067124.1927

Abstract

Background and Objective: The rapid developments of emerging information and communication technologies have brought about profound transformations in the structure and function of national defense and security systems. Accordingly, the percies identification of key drivers influencing the defense security of the Islamic Republic of Iran by the horizon of 2035 is regarded as a strategic imperative for future-oriented policymaking and decision-making.
Methods: The present study is a longitudinal survey in terms of applied purpose, data collection in terms of mixed methods, and was conducted by focusing on qualitative futures research methods and quantitative data analysis methods using meta-synthesis of related studies and documents, Delphi, and interaction analysis using the Wilson matrix. The community of experts and experts participating in this study are 27 academic experts, managers, and senior experts in the defense and security fields.
Findings: Based on the meta-synthesis of the studies, 22 initial drivers were identified, and 11 final drivers were extracted by integrating their thematic and conceptual dimensions. The final categorization of these drivers into four structural groups: groups-key, interactive, dependent, and emerging-revealed that a considerable number of them exhibit nonlinear and overlapping characteristics, which must be taken into account in the design of future scenarios.
Conclusions: The findings indicate that emerging information and communication technologies, particularly those related to artificial intelligence, big data, virtual reality, cybersecurity, and fifth and sixthgeneration telecommunication infrastructures-will play a pivotal role in redefining the defense and security landscape of the country in the future.

Keywords

Drivers

Emerging Information-Communication Technologies

Defense Security

Wilson Matrix

Metasynthesis

Subjects

Future studies in the field of scientific, military and defense estimates

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