Possible scenarios of Iran Nuclear Deal after the 2020 US presidential election, Scenario planning LAMP method

Kiani, Ehsan; Hajiani, Ebrahim

doi:10.22034/dfsr.2020.136281.1421

Possible scenarios of Iran Nuclear Deal after the 2020 US presidential election, Scenario planning LAMP method

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

Ehsan Kiani ¹
Ebrahim Hajiani ²

¹ PhD. Student, in Imam Hossein University

² Associate Prof. in Shahed University

10.22034/dfsr.2020.136281.1421

Abstract

The importance of the US role in the Iranian nuclear case from the beginning made the United States the main party against Iran. the other parties did not completely their obligations After the US withdrew from the nuclear deal. So the future of the Iran nuclear deal depends on the outcome of the US presidential election in November 2020. by given to The difference of Trump and Biden's positions, it is necessary to evaluate the future of Iran nuclear deal. Each actor can choose from three types of action in relation to the nuclear deal, including full compliance, reduction of commitments or withdrawal. In this article, the lamp method attributed to Dr. Lockwood was used. This method evaluates the possibility of alternative futures. Using the views of numbers of elites with knowledge or experience in the field of foreign policy showed that probable hypothesis if Trump wins, is that current situation will continue. If Biden wins, the probable hypothesis is a limited and temporary return of the US to the nuclear deal to force Iran to start regional negotiations.

Keywords

References

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