Plausible Scenarios for the Futures of Chain Stores in Iran; a Case Study of ETKA Chain Stores

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

PhD. in Future Study of Tehran University

Abstract

Rapid changes and widespread uncertainties in the chain store business have led managers to focus on "Scenario-based planning" rather than "Strategic planning", and "robust strategies" rather than "Optimum strategies". In this study, we tend to identify and develop plussible scenarios for the future of the chain store industry in Iran (based on a case study of ETKA Chain Stores). For this purpose, we used the Peter Schwartz scenario planning approach. We asked experts to find key factors. Also We used systematic review for find key factors. The driving forces, they were obtained from the scoring of experts. The cross-impact matrix was completed by experts We used Mick Mac software and scenario wizard for structural analysis and probability analysis. Furthermore, scenarios with high compatibility were selected. The Output of Scenario Wizard Software is four plussible scenarios included "Big Shopper", "sideline Retailer", "Virtual shopping mall," and "Mall Project". Besides, after two brainstorming sessions and considering the complicated and complex environment of chain store activities, the fifth scenario, "proprietary market" as a complementary scenario, and the sixth scenario, "dissolution" as a surprising scenario, were added to the four software output. These scenarios help managers make better decisions and actions now.

Keywords

References

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