Defensive Future Studies

Defensive Future Studies

Designing a strategic foresight framework for defensive technologies in the field of air defense using interpretive structural modeling

Document Type : Original Article

Authors
Ebrahim Ijabi 1
Farhad Dervish she talani 2
Hossein Minaie 3
Safar Fazli 2
Ainolah Keshavarz 4
1 PhD. in Future Studies of Imam Khomeini International University and Faculty member of Command aand Staff University
2 Associate Prof. of Imam Khomeini International University
3 Assistant Prof. in AJA Command and Staff University
4 Assistant Prof. of Imam Khomeini International University
10.22034/dfsr.2020.39784
Abstract
This paper aimed to study the frameworks, models and patterns of foresight and strategic foresight in different organizations, and by using the opinions of experts, trying to synthesize the steps, components and stages of strategic foresight of technology in the field of air defense of the Islamic Republic of Iran, and introduce a appropriate framework in this field. For this purpose, by using an interpretive structural modeling method, the opinion of 25 experts was received, and within seven steps of ISM method, each of the stages of the strategic foresight framework of air defense technologies were sorted. According to the output of interpretive structural models, The pre-foresight step includes Five levels and thirteen steps, the specifying inputs step includes nine levels and seventeen steps, the foresight step includes five levels and eleven steps, the output step includes two levels and seven steps and the step of developing strategies includes four levels and ten steps.  Finally, the strategic foresight framework of technology in army air defense of the Islamic Republic of Iran was designed and developed and using the calculation of the power of influence and the degree of dependency, "effective, connective, independent and dependent" stages were determined at each step.
Keywords
Framework
Strategic Foresight
Air Defense
Technology
Interpretive Structural Modeling
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