Defensive Future Studies

Defensive Future Studies

Strategic foresight for defensive technologies in the field of Army Air Defense of the Islamic Republic of Iran on 1420 horizon

Document Type : Original Article

Authors
Ebrahim Ijabi 1
Farhad Dervishi she talani 2
Hosein Minaie 3
Safar Fazli 2
Ainolah Keshavarz 4
1 PhD in Future Studies of Imam Khomeini International University
2 Associate Prof. of Imam Khomeini International University
3 Assistant Prof. in AJA Command and Staff University
4 Assistant Prof. of Imam Khomeini International University
10.22034/dfsr.2019.37983
Abstract
This paper aims to review and analyze the foundations, concepts, definitions and models of foresight and strategic foresight provided by experts, in order to extract the dimensions, components and key items and finally intreduce steps of strategic foresight for defensive technology in the field of army air defense of the Islamic Republic of Iran. In order to analyze, the initial data was collected by documentary studies (25 documents), then using Meta-Study(Meta-Synthesis), we determined the dimensions, components and items of the research. Finally, 68 people were asked to complete the questionnaire. Using descriptive and inferential statistics, the following results were obtained.
Five stages with the relevant components and steps for defensive technologies strategic foresight of air defense were determined: The pre-foresight stage includes the components of the study of competitor and enemy organizations (3 steps), the study of upstream and par organizations (2 steps), survey of the Organization (3 steps) and reviewing the existing situation (5 steps). The determination of inputs stage includes components of target designation (4 steps), specifying stakeholders (5 steps), setting the Territory (4 steps) and data collection (4 steps). The foresight stage includes components of analysis (3 steps), interpretation (step 2), favorable condition (step 2) and vision (4 steps). The Output stage includes components of preparation for decision making (3 steps) and assessment & decision making (4 steps). And The Strategy formulation stage includes components of strategic development or strategic technology management (5 steps) and implementation & execution (5 steps).
Keywords
foresight
strategic foresight
air defense
technology

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