Scenarios of Iran-Turkey Relations on the Horizon of 2030

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 Resident Research Fellow at Imam Hussain Comprehensive Univesity

2 Assistant Prof. in Regional Studies Department,, Faculty of Law and Political Science, University of Tehran

3 Assistant Prof. in Regional Studies Department, Faculty of Law and Political Science, University of Tehran.

Abstract

This research studies the Future of Iran-Turkey Relations to help the policymakers by depicting the future atmosphere of relations between the two countries, so they can think of alternative options that are closest to the national interests of the country. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to identify probable scenarios in Iran-Turkey relations on the horizon of 2030.The research is exploratory in nature, practical in purpose, mixed in data gathering, and correlational in data analysis. A scenario planning method based on cross-impact balance analysis was used in this research. First, the 62 variables affecting the Iran-Turkey relations were identified. By distributing a questionnaire among 35 experts, the effect, importance and uncertainty of each variable were determined. Finally, the validity of 57 variables were confirmed as factors and drivers affecting the future of Iran-Turkey relations. To analyze the results of the questionnaire and select the key factors, the importance-performance analysis method was used and the threshold value of significance and uncertainty was determined. In total, 19 factors had importance and uncertainty above the threshold value. Then, using Friedman test, 19 factors were ranked and by determining the cut-off point of ten, so eight final key factors were selected to form the matrix of cross-impact balance. Then, by forming a panel of experts and weighing the interactions and software analysis with Scenario Wizard,4 scenarios with zero incompatibility and 17 scenarios with incompatibility value of one, were obtained and by combining close scenarios, seven final scenarios were written and analyzed.

Keywords

References

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