Defensive Future Studies

Defensive Future Studies

Scenarios of Iran-Turkey Relations on the Horizon of 2030

Document Type : Original Article

Authors
Seyed Mahdi Nabavi 1
Seyed Hamze Safavi 2
Mohammad Sadegh Kooshki 3
1 Resident Research Fellow at Imam Hussain Comprehensive Univesity
2 Assistant Prof. in Regional Studies Department,, Faculty of Law and Political Science, University of Tehran
3 Assistant Prof. in Regional Studies Department, Faculty of Law and Political Science, University of Tehran.
10.22034/dfsr.2021.141522.1441
Abstract
This research studies the Future of Iran-Turkey Relations to help the policymakers by depicting the future atmosphere of relations between the two countries, so they can think of alternative options that are closest to the national interests of the country. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to identify probable scenarios in Iran-Turkey relations on the horizon of 2030.The research is exploratory in nature, practical in purpose, mixed in data gathering, and correlational in data analysis. A scenario planning method based on cross-impact balance analysis was used in this research. First, the 62 variables affecting the Iran-Turkey relations were identified. By distributing a questionnaire among 35 experts, the effect, importance and uncertainty of each variable were determined. Finally, the validity of 57 variables were confirmed as factors and drivers affecting the future of Iran-Turkey relations. To analyze the results of the questionnaire and select the key factors, the importance-performance analysis method was used and the threshold value of significance and uncertainty was determined. In total, 19 factors had importance and uncertainty above the threshold value. Then, using Friedman test, 19 factors were ranked and by determining the cut-off point of ten, so eight final key factors were selected to form the matrix of cross-impact balance. Then, by forming a panel of experts and weighing the interactions and software analysis with Scenario Wizard,4 scenarios with zero incompatibility and 17 scenarios with incompatibility value of one, were obtained and by combining close scenarios, seven final scenarios were written and analyzed.
Keywords
Futures Studies
Iran
Scenario Writing
Iran-Turkey Relations
Turkey

  •  

    • Aras, Bulent.,Yorulmazlar, Emirhan. (2018) Turkey Iran and the Gulf Crisis. HSF Policy Brief, Humanitarian Studies Foundation:1-12.
    • Ashkar, Hani., Anderson, Stephen. (2016). Middle East Megatrends: Transforming our region. PwC. Retrieved from https://www.pwc.com/m1/en/issues/megatrends.html
    • Badawi, Tamer. (2019). Factors Affecting the Future of Iran-Turkey Relations, (Interview, October 16)
    • Bell, Wendell.(1996). An Overview of Futures Studies. In R. A. Slaughter (ed.), The Knowledge Base of Futures Studies, Vol. 1.Australia: DDM Media Group. 28-56.
    • Charounatki, Mariana. (2018). Iran and Turkey,International and Regional Engagement in the MiddleEast. New York: I.B.Tauris & Co. Ltd.
    • Colakoğlu, Selcuk. (2019, April 16). The Rise of Eurasianism in Turkish Foreign Policy: Can Turkey Change its pro-Western Orientation? Retrieved March 19, 2020, from Middle East Institute: https://www.mei.edu/publications/rise-eurasianism-turkish-foreign-policy-can-turkey-change-its-pro-western-orientation.
    • Dalay, Galip. (2018, may 20). Turkey in the Middle East’s new battle lines. Retrieved February 11, 2019, from Brookings: https://www.brookings.edu/opinions/the-middle-easts-new-battle-lines/
    • Duran, Burhanettin., Yilmaz, Nuh. (2013). Islam, Models and the Middle East: The New Balance of Power following the Arab Spring, Perceptions, XVIII(4): 139-170.
    • Efron, Shira. (2018). The Future of Israeli-Turkish Relations. RAND Corporation.
    • Erşen, Emre., Köstem, Seckin. (2019). Introduction: understanding the dynamics of Turkey’s pivot to Eurasia. In E. Erşen, & S. Köstem, Turkey's Pivot to Eurasia:Geopolitics and Foreign Policy in a Changing World Order, New York: Routledge:1-14.
    • Harmoon Center. (2017). Determinants of Iranian-Turkish relations, Doha: Harmoon Centre for Contemporary Studies.
    • Işıksal, Huseyn. (2018). Turkish Foreign Policy, the Arab Spring,and the Syrian Crisis: One Step Forward, Two Steps Back. In H. Işıksal, & O. Goksel, Turkey’s Relations with the Middle East: Political Encounters after the Arab Spring, Switzerland: Springer: 13-23.
    • Jenkins, Gareth H. (2012). Occasional Allies, Enduring Rivals: Turkey’s Relations with Iran. Washington: Johns Hopkins University, Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program.
    • Kamrava, Mehran. (2016). The Great Game in West Asia, New York: Oxford University Press.
    • Kasapoğlu, Can. (2019). Turkish-Russian Defense Cooperation: Political-Military Scopes, Prospects and Limits, Istanbul: The Centre for Economics and Foreign Policy Studies (EDAM).
    • Koolaee, Elaheh., Hafezian, Hossein. (2017). The Kurdish Question and Iranian-Turkish Relations: 1991-2015, International Studies Journal (ISJ),14(2):67- 90.
    • Lawshe, C.H. (1975). A Quantitative Approach to Content Validity, Personnel Psychology, 28: 563-575.
    • Martilla, John A., James, John C. (1977). Importance-Performance Analysis, Journal of Marketing, 41(1): 77-79.
    • Saaty, Thomas L. (2008). Decision Making with the Analytic Hierarchy Process, International Journal of Services Sciences, 1(1): 83-98.
    • Sever, Aysegul., Almog, Orna. (2019). Introduction. In A. Sever, & O. Almog, Contemporary Israeli–Turkish Relations in Comparative Perspective, Switzerland: Palgrave Macmillan: 1-10.
    • Tiryakioğlu, Muhsin. (2018, May 30). Iran keeps top position as crude oil exporter to Turkey. Retrieved March 09, 2020, from Anadolu Agency: https://www.aa.com.tr/en/energy/oil-downstreeam/iran-keeps-top-position-as-crude-oil-exporter-to-turkey/20285
    • Tocci, Nathalie. (2016). Turkey and the European Union: Scenarios for 2023, Roma: Istituto Affari Internazionali.
    • Torelli, Stefano M. (2018). The Rise and Fall of the Turkish Model for the Middle East. In H. Işıksal, & O. Göksel, Turkey's Relations with the Middle East: Political Encounters after the Arab Spring,Switzerland: springer:53-64.
    • Turgut, Kadir. (2011). Turkiye’de Fars Dili ve Edebiyati Alaninda Yapilan Çalismalar Bibliyografyasi Denemesi: İstanbul Üniversitesi Şarkiyat Mecmuası, (18): 75-122.
    • US National Intelligence Council. (2012). Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds, Washington: Office of the Director of National Intelligence.
    • Uygur, Hakki. (2017). A New Era in Turkish-Iranian Relations, Istanbul: Al Sharq Forum. Retrieved March 03, 2019 Available at: https://research.sharqforum.org/2017/07/31/a-new-era-in-turkish-iranian-relations/
    • Uygur, Hakki. (2019). Factors Affecting the Future of Iran-Turkey Relation. (Interview, September 5)
    • Waldman, Simon A. (2019). Turkey won't be expelled from Nato, but it could become a member in name only, London: The National.
    • Weimer-Jehle, Wolfgang. (2006). Cross-impact balances:A system-theoretical approach to cross-impact analysis, Technological Forecasting & Social Change, (73): 334-361.
    • Weimer-Jehle, Wolfgang. (2013). ScenarioWizard 4.1, Constructing Consistent Scenarios Using Cross-Impact Balance Analysis, Stuttgart, Germany.
    • Yabanci, Bilge. (2016). The Future of EU-Turkey Relations: Between Mutual Distrust and Interdependency, Rome: Istituto Affari Internazionali.

    Zarras, Konstantinos. (2018). Assessing the Regional Influence and Relations of Turkey and Saudi Arabia After the Arab Spring. In H. Işıksal, & O. Göksel, Turkey’s Relations with the Middle East:Political Encounters after the Arab Spring, Switzerland: Springer:117-131.