ارائه مدل جامع برنامه‌ریزی سناریویی با رویکرد پیش‌نگری

نوع مقاله : مقاله علمی- پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری مهندسی صنایع، گرایش مدیریت سیستم و بهره‌وری، دانشکده صنایع دانشگاه علم و صنعت ایران

2 استاد دانشکده صنایع دانشگاه علم و صنعت ایران

3 استاد دانشکده مهندسی پیشرفت، دانشگاه علم و صنعت ایران

چکیده

برنامه‌ریزی سناریویی، ابزاری برای مواجهه با عدم‌قطعیت‌های محیطی است و از دهه 1950 تاکنون، روش‌های علمی متعددی در دسته‌بندی‌های مختلف از جمله گذشته‌نگری، پیش‌نگری و پس‌نگری، کیفی و کمّی، قیاسی و استقرایی، غیرمشارکتی و مشارکتی، اکتشافی و هنجاری و غیره برای آن ارائه شده است. تعدد و تنوع روش­ها، کاربران این ابزار را عملاً دچار سردرگمی در انتخاب روش مناسب و پیاده‌سازی آن نموده است. پژوهشگر با مدنظر قرار دادن دسته‌بندی اول، به دلیل رایج بودن مدل‌های برنامه‌ریزی سناریویی پیش‌نگری در این دسته‌بندی و عدم انجام مطالعه‌ای که به ارائه مدل جامع در این خصوص پرداخته باشد، با غور علمی در 10 روش پیش‌نگری به عنوان جامعه هدف پژوهش، تلاش نمود، با ارائه مدلی جامع، از تکثر و سردرگمی در این حوزه بکاهد. اهمیت این پژوهش، افزایش سهولت در فهم و اجرای مراحل، بالا رفتن کیفیت و قابلیت اطمینان نتایج و کاهش دغدغه کارشناسان برای انتخاب مدل مناسب برنامه‌ریزی سناریویی پیش‌نگری است. نپرداختن به این مساله، موجب افزایش خطاهای کاربران در انتخاب مدل مناسب و تطویل یا ساده‌انگاری بیش از حد در انجام پروژه‌های برنامه‌ریزی سناریویی پیش‌نگری خواهد بود. روش‌شناسی پژوهش مبتنی بر پارادایم ساخت‌گرایی، جهت‌گیری توسعه‌ای، از نوع کیفی و روش آن، توصیفی و موردی‌زمینه‌ای است که با استفاده از روش فراتلفیق انجام شد. برای آزمون مدل، تعدادی از متخصصین با روش نمونه‌گیری غیرتصادفی هدفمند قضاوتی انتخاب و با استفاده از ابزار دلفی، تا حصول اشباع نظری، مصاحبه‌ها ادامه یافت. مدل نهایی پژوهش در قالب دو فاز کلی، چهار مرحله اصلی و چهارده گام فرعی ارائه شد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

The Comprehensive Scenario Planning Model with a Forecasting Approach

نویسندگان [English]

  • Mohammad Reza Nasiri 1
  • Mohammad saeed Jabalameli 2
  • Ali reza aliahmadi 3
1 PhD student in Industrial Engineer of Iran University of Science and Technology, Tehran, Iran.
2 Professor, Faculty of Industrial Engineering, Iran University of Science and Technology, Tehran, Iran
3 Professor, Faculty of Development Engineering, Iran University of Science and Technology, Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

Scenario planning is a tool for dealing with environmental uncertainty. Since the 1950s, several scientific methods have been proposed for various categories, such as pastcasting, forecasting and backcasting, qualitative and quantitative, deductive and inductive, non- participatory and participatory, exploratory and normative, etc. The variety and Multiplicity of methods has made the users practically confused in choosing the right method and implementing it. The researcher, considering the first category, has tried with the scientific gurus in 10 methods as the target of the research due to the prevalence of forecasting scenario planning models in this category and the lack of a study to provide a comprehensive model in this regard. The importance of this research is to increase the ease of understanding and implementation of the steps, increase the quality and reliability of the results, and reduce the concern of experts to select the appropriate scenario planning scenario. Failure to do so will increase the user's mistakes in choosing the right model and over-simplifying or Prolongation the planning of scenario planning projects. The methodology of research is based on the structural paradigm, developmental orientation, qualitative type and its method, descriptive and case research that were carried out using the meta synthesis method. To test the model, a number of experts were selected by non-random sampling method, and by using the Delphi tool, interviews continued until theoretical saturation. The final model of the research was presented in the form of two general phases, four main stages and fourteen sub steps.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Scenario Planning
  • Forecasting Approach
  • Meta Synthesis method
  • Comprehensive Scenario Planning Model

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آینده‌پژوهی دفاعی
دوره 4، شماره 12
خرداد 1398
صفحه 7-37

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