ارائه مدل جامع برنامه‌ریزی سناریویی با رویکرد پیش‌نگری

نوع مقاله: مقاله علمی- پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری مهندسی صنایع، گرایش مدیریت سیستم و بهره‌وری، دانشکده صنایع دانشگاه علم و صنعت ایران

2 استاد دانشکده صنایع دانشگاه علم و صنعت ایران

3 استاد دانشکده مهندسی پیشرفت، دانشگاه علم و صنعت ایران

چکیده

برنامه‌ریزی سناریویی، ابزاری برای مواجهه با عدم‌قطعیت‌های محیطی است و از دهه 1950 تاکنون، روش‌های علمی متعددی در دسته‌بندی‌های مختلف از جمله گذشته‌نگری، پیش‌نگری و پس‌نگری، کیفی و کمّی، قیاسی و استقرایی، غیرمشارکتی و مشارکتی، اکتشافی و هنجاری و غیره برای آن ارائه شده است. تعدد و تنوع روش­ها، کاربران این ابزار را عملاً دچار سردرگمی در انتخاب روش مناسب و پیاده‌سازی آن نموده است. پژوهشگر با مدنظر قرار دادن دسته‌بندی اول، به دلیل رایج بودن مدل‌های برنامه‌ریزی سناریویی پیش‌نگری در این دسته‌بندی و عدم انجام مطالعه‌ای که به ارائه مدل جامع در این خصوص پرداخته باشد، با غور علمی در 10 روش پیش‌نگری به عنوان جامعه هدف پژوهش، تلاش نمود، با ارائه مدلی جامع، از تکثر و سردرگمی در این حوزه بکاهد. اهمیت این پژوهش، افزایش سهولت در فهم و اجرای مراحل، بالا رفتن کیفیت و قابلیت اطمینان نتایج و کاهش دغدغه کارشناسان برای انتخاب مدل مناسب برنامه‌ریزی سناریویی پیش‌نگری است. نپرداختن به این مساله، موجب افزایش خطاهای کاربران در انتخاب مدل مناسب و تطویل یا ساده‌انگاری بیش از حد در انجام پروژه‌های برنامه‌ریزی سناریویی پیش‌نگری خواهد بود. روش‌شناسی پژوهش مبتنی بر پارادایم ساخت‌گرایی، جهت‌گیری توسعه‌ای، از نوع کیفی و روش آن، توصیفی و موردی‌زمینه‌ای است که با استفاده از روش فراتلفیق انجام شد. برای آزمون مدل، تعدادی از متخصصین با روش نمونه‌گیری غیرتصادفی هدفمند قضاوتی انتخاب و با استفاده از ابزار دلفی، تا حصول اشباع نظری، مصاحبه‌ها ادامه یافت. مدل نهایی پژوهش در قالب دو فاز کلی، چهار مرحله اصلی و چهارده گام فرعی ارائه شد.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

The Comprehensive Scenario Planning Model with a Forecasting Approach

نویسندگان [English]

  • Mohammad Reza Nasiri 1
  • mohammad saeed jabalameli 2
  • Ali reza aliahmadi 3
1 School of Industrial Engineering, Iran University of Science and Technology, Tehran, Iran.
2 IUST
3 IUST
چکیده [English]

Scenario planning is a tool for dealing with environmental uncertainty. Since the 1950s, several scientific methods have been proposed for various categories, such as pastcasting, forecasting and backcasting, qualitative and quantitative, deductive and inductive, non- participatory and participatory, exploratory and normative, etc. The variety and Multiplicity of methods has made the users practically confused in choosing the right method and implementing it. The researcher, considering the first category, has tried with the scientific gurus in 10 methods as the target of the research due to the prevalence of forecasting scenario planning models in this category and the lack of a study to provide a comprehensive model in this regard. The importance of this research is to increase the ease of understanding and implementation of the steps, increase the quality and reliability of the results, and reduce the concern of experts to select the appropriate scenario planning scenario. Failure to do so will increase the user's mistakes in choosing the right model and over-simplifying or Prolongation the planning of scenario planning projects. The methodology of research is based on the structural paradigm, developmental orientation, qualitative type and its method, descriptive and case research that were carried out using the meta synthesis method. To test the model, a number of experts were selected by non-random sampling method, and by using the Delphi tool, interviews continued until theoretical saturation. The final model of the research was presented in the form of two general phases, four main stages and fourteen sub steps.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Scenario Planning
  • Forecasting Approach
  • Meta Synthesis method
  • Comprehensive Scenario Planning Model

·       دانایی فرد، حسن؛ الوانی سیدمهدی؛ آذر، عادل. (1396). روش شناسی پژوهش کمّی و روش شناسی پژوهش کیفی در مدیریت رویکردی جامع، چاپ پنجم. تهران: انتشارات صفّار.

·       شونکر، برخارد؛ والف، تورستن. (2013). برنامه‌ریزی استراتژیک مبتنی بر سناریو- توسعه استراتژی‌ها در یک دنیای نامطمئن. ترجمه فرهاد مهمان‌پذیر، محمد مسعود نخستین، علی‌عباس‌بنایی.تهران: انتشارات ژرف.

·       کرامت‌زاده، عبدالمجید. (1395). طراحی الگویی برای توسعه راهبرد بر مبنای سناریو نگاری در شرایط عدم‌قطعیت. رساله دکتری، دانشگاه علوم اجتماعی گروه آینده پژوهی.

·        Arabsorkhi, A., Khodabandeh, A., Tashakori, L. (2014). A framework for the formulation of security issues in the field of e-learning using MetaSynthesis method. Management Science Letters 4, 1899–1906.

·        Allington, G. R. H., M. E. Fernandez-Gimenez, J. Chen, and D. G. Brown. (2018). Combining participatory scenario planning and systems modeling to identify drivers of future sustainability on the Mongolian Plateau. Ecology and Society 23(2):9.

·        Amer, M., Daim, T.U., Jetter, A. (2013). A review of scenario planning. Futures 46, 23–40.

·        Atwood, R. (2018). An Opportunity for Scenario Planning in Corporate Sustainability Strategy. Masters project of Environmental Management degree from the Nicholas School of the Environment at Duke University.

·        Beach, D. M., and D. A. Clark. (2015). Scenario planning during rapid ecological change: lessons and perspectives from workshops with southwest Yukon wildlife managers. Ecology and Society 20(1): 61.

·        Bishop, P., Hines, A., Collins, T. (2007). The current state of scenario development: an overview of techniques, Foresight 9, 5-25.

·        Bo¨rjeson, L., Ho¨jer, M., Dreborg, K.-H., Ekvall, T., Finnveden, G. (2006). Scenario types and techniques: towards a user’s guide, Futures 38, 723–739.

·        Cairns, G., Goodwin, P., & Wright, G. (2016). A decision-analysis-based framework foranalysing stakeholder behaviour in scenario planning. European Journal ofOperational Research, 249, 1050-1062.

·        Chapin III, F. S., Lovecraft, A. L., Zavaleta,  E. S., Nelson, J., Robards, M.D., Kofinas, G. P., Trainor, S. F., Peterson, G. D., Huntington, H. P., Naylor, R. L. (2006). Policy strategies to address sustainability of Alaskan boreal forests in response to a directionally changing climate. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 103(45),16637-16643.

·        Chermack, T. (2011). Scenario planning in organizations: How to creat, use, and assess scenarios. Brett-koehler publishers. Inc. San Francisco.

·        Chermack, T. J., Coons, L. M., Khatami, S., & O’barr, G. (2017). The effects of scenario planning on participant reports of resilience. European Journal of Training &Development, 41, 306-326.

·        Chermack, T., Gauck, B., Glick, M., & Luckel, H. (2012). Effects of scenario planning on participant mental models. European Journal of Training and Development,
36, 488-507.

·        Churchhouse, S., Hoffmann, J., Palermo, A., & RamÍRez, R. (2017). Using scenario planning to reshape strategy.  MIT Sloan Management Review, 58, 31-37.

·        Deal, B., Pallathucheril, V., Pan, H., & Timm, S. (2017). The role of multidirectionaltemporal analysis in scenario planning exercises and planning support systems. Computers, Environment & Urban Systems, 64, 91-102.

·        Derbyshire, J., & Wright, G. (2017). Augmenting the intuitive logics scenario planningmethod for a more comprehensive analysis of causation. International Journal ofForecasting, 33, 254-266.

·        Durance, P., Godet, M. (2010). Scenario building: uses and abuses, Technological Forecasting and Social Change 77, 1488–1492.

·        Freeth, R., & Drimie, S. (2016). Participatory scenario planning: From scenariostakeholders’ to scenario ‘owners’. Environment, 58(4), 32-43.

·        Gaskill, C., Robert, J. (2018). Scenario Planning for Organizational Adaptability: The Lived Experiences of Executives. Walden Dissertations and Doctoral Studies.

·        Ghelishli, Y., Ghazinoory, S.S., Ghazizadeh Fard, S.Z. (2014). The Impact of Social Capital on Enterprise Architecture of Government-to-Government in Iran:  Scenario Planning Approach. UCT Journal of Research in Science, Engineering and Technology.  (1),2-32-43.

·        Giaoutzi, M., Stratigea, A. (2012). Scenario analysis as a foresight tool in agriculture. Int. J. Foresight and Innovation Policy, 8, 2/3.

·        Godet, M. (1999). Creating the Future. The Antidote, (22), 11-16.

·        Godet, M. (2000). Forefront: how to be rigorous with scenario planning, Foresight 2, 5–9.

·        Godet, M. (2001). The art of scenarios and strategic planning: Tools and pitfalls.
Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 51, 3-22.

·        Hammell, K.W. (2007). Quality of life after spinal cord injury: A meta-synthesis of qualitative findings. Spinal Cord, 45(2), 124-139.

·        Hegedusich, W. (2017). The Arctic: a wait and see approach to defending the homeland. Calhoun: The NPS Institutional Archive DSpace Repository. 2017-12.

·        Huss, W.R., Honton, E.J. (1987). Scenario planning—what style should you use? Long Range Plan. 20(4) , 21–29.

·        Kahn, H., Wiener, A.J. (1967). The Year 2000: A Framework for Speculation on the Next Thirty Three Years. Macmillan, NY.

·        Inayatullah, S. (2007). Questioning the Future: Methods and Tools for Organizational and Societal Transformation. Tamkang University Press. Graduate Institute of Futures Studies, Tamsui, Taipei, Taiwan 251.

·        Inayatullah, S., Milojević, I. (2015). CLA 2.0: Transformative Research in Theory and Practice. Tamsui: Tamkang University Press.

·        Laurent, K.L., Friedman, K.B., Krantzberg, G., Scavia, D., Creed, I.F. (2014). Scenario analysis: An   integrative and effective method for bridging disciplines and achieving a thriving Great Lakes-St. Lawrence River basin. Journal of Great Lakes Research.

·        List, D. (2005). Scenario Network Mapping: The Development of a Methodology for Social Inquiry, PhD thesis, Division of Business and Enterprise, University of South Australia.

·        Loska, A. (2015). Modelling of decision-making process using scenario methods in maintenance management of selected technical systems. Int. J. Strategic Engineering Asset Management, 2, 2.

·        Minkkinen, M., Parkkinen, M., Heinonen, P. (2018).Drilling and Blasting to Learn Scenario Construction: Experimenting with Causal Layered Analysis as a Disruption of Scenario Work. World Futures Review 1 –12.

·        Mietzner, D., Reger, G. (2005). Advantages and disadvantages of scenario approaches for strategic foresight, International Journal of Technology Intelligence andPlanning 1, 220–239.

·        Millet SM. (2003). The Future of Scenarios: Challenges and Opportunities. Strategy & Leadeship 31(2), 16-24.

·        Noblit, G. (1988). Eta-ethnography: synthesizing qualitative studies .CA: NEWBURY PARK.

·        Palomo, I., Martín-López, B., López-Santiago, C., Montes, C. (2011). Participatory scenario planning for  protected areas management  under the ecosystem services framework: the  Doñana social-ecological system in  southwestern Spain. Ecology and Society  16(1), 23.

·        Pastor, F.M. (2009). Exploring Scenario Planning Processes– Differences and similarities. Master thesis, Next Generation Innovative Logistics (NGIL), Center based at Lund University sponsored by Vinnova, the Swedish Governmental Agency for Innovation System.

·        Ralston, B., Wilson, I. (2006). The scenario planning handbook strategy in guid to developing and using scenarios to direct today's untertain times. Mason, Ohio: Thomson South-Western, ©2006.

·        Ramirez, R., Wilkinson, A., (2014). Re-thinking the 2X2 scenario method: grid or frames. Technological Forecasting and Social Change.

·        Reed, M. S., Kenter, J., Bonn,A., Broad, K.,  Burt, T. P., Fazey, I. R.,  Fraser,
E. D. G., Hubacek, K., Nainggolan, D., Quinn, C. H., Stringer, L. C., Ravera, F. (2013). Participatory scenario development for environmental management:a methodological framework illustrated with experience from the UK uplands. Journal of Environmental Management 128,345-362.

·        Ringland, G., Schwartz, P. (1996). Scenario Planning: Managing for the Future, 2nd Edition. Robinson, J.B. (1990). FUTURES UNDER GLASS, A recipe for people who hate to predict [1] 33.

·        Sandelowski, M., Barros J. (2007). Handbook for synthesizing qualitative research,Springer publishing company Inc

·        Saritas, O., Oner, M.A. (2004). Systemic analysis of UK foresight results: joint application of integrated management model and roadmapping, Technological Forecasting and Social Change 71, 27–65.

·        Sarpong, D. and Maclean, M. (2011). Unpacking scenario thinking in product innovation teams:  A practice approach. In: 18th International Product Development Conference, Delft, Netherlands, 5th - 7th June, 2011.

·        Schoemaker, P. J. H. (1995). Scenario planning: a tool for strategic thinking. Sloan Management Review 36,25-40.

·        Schwarz, B. (1977). Long-range planning in the public sector, Futures 9, 115–127.

·        Schwartz, P. (1991). The art of the long view: planning for the future in an uncertain world.

·        Schwartz, P. (1996). The art of the long view: planning for the future in an uncertain world. (Original work:1991)

·        Schwenger, B., Wulf, T. (2013). Scenario- based strategic planning: developing strategies in an uncertain word. ISBN 978-3-658-02875-6.

·        Stratigea, A., Giaoutzi, M. (2012). Scenario Planning as a Tool in Foresight Exercises: The LIPSOR Approach, in Giaoutzi and Sapio ed., Recent Developments in Foresight Methodologies, New York, Springer – Verlag, 2012a, pp. 215-236.

·        Stratigea, A., Papadopoulou, A. (2013). Foresight Analysis at the Regional Level - A Participatory Methodological  Framework. Journal of Management and Strategy.4, 2.

·        Vacík, E., Zahradníčková, L. (2014).  Scenarios as a strong support for strategicplanning. Procedia Engineering, 69, 665- 669.

·        Van der Heijden, K. (1996). Scenarios: The Art of Strategic Conversation, 1st ed., John Wiley & Sons Ltd, Chichester.

·        Van Notten, P.W.F., Rotmans, J., Van Asselt, M.B.A., Rothman, D.S. (2003). An updated scenario typology, Futures 35, 423–443.

·        Vecchiato,R., Roveda, C. (2010). Strategic foresight in corporate organizations: handling the effect and response uncertainty of technology and social drivers of change, Technological Forecasting and Social Change 77, 1527–1539.

·        Walz, A., Lardelli, C., Behrendt, H., Grót-Regamey, A., Lundström, C., Kytzia, S., Bebi, P. (2007). Participatory scenario analysis for integrated regional modelling. Landscape& Urban Planning 81,114-131.

Wright, G., Goodwin, P. (2009). Decision Making and Planning under Low Levels of Predictability: Enhancing the Scenario Method. International Journal of Forecasting 25 (4), 813–25.

·