Recognition and Explanation of Effective Factors and Propulsions on Iran and Persian Gulf Cooperation Council (PGCC) Relations in Next Ten Years Overlook by Utilizing MICMAC Method
Vahid
RanjbarHeydari
Guilan University
author
Arsalan
Gorbani
دانشگاه خوارزمی تهران
author
Reza
Simbar
دانشکده ادبیات و علوم انسانی دانشگاه گیلان
author
Ebrahim
Hajiani
دانشگاه شاهد
author
text
article
2016
per
Persian Gulf is one of the most geological areas in the world with outstanding characteristics that was constantly in consideration of so many states for centuries. So, Persian Gulf has always been faced with competitions and conflicts of states. This area involves state parties of the PGCC, including Iran and Iraq, that Iran’s relations with southern countries of Persian Gulf is important from several aspects. In this regard, by utilizing futures study, first, initial data was collected by semi-open review with twenty experts in this subject and was analyzed by Micmac software. Finally, the conclusion of utilizing intersecting effects analysis was the recognition of five key factors among sixty initial recognized factors. These five factors include: the attitudes of authorities and governments of Iran and state parties of the PGCC with each other; proliferation of military competitions between state parties of the council (Arabian NATO Plan) and Iran with the aim of being hegemony in Persian Gulf area; inspiring fear of Shiite-Arc and issuance of Islamic Revolution of Iran to be against Iran and identity differences; the effects of the future of Bahrain, Syria, Iraq, Yemen and Lebanon on relations between Iran and state parties of the PGCC; and, Iran’s Atomic Program and the future of BARJAM (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action: JCPOA). These factors can be used as main factors in Scenario in future study.
Defensive Future Studies
Command and Staff University
2588-428X
1
v.
2
no.
2016
7
37
http://www.dfsr.ir/article_27249_306fe229632c38bf71b26c962d6b8204.pdf
Future studies of developing defensive researches in the I.R.I Army
Hossein
Valivand Zamani
استادیار دانشگاه فرماندهی و ستاد ارتش ج.ا.ا
author
text
article
2016
per
This paper is an attempt to answer the fundamental question of what the suitable strategies are for developing defensive researches in the IRI Army. Based on its objectives and nature, the research is descriptive and based on its outcomes and consequences, it is an applied-developmental paper. The statistical population of the research is a 900-people body of research experts in IRI Army and some of the authorities in the Ministry of Science, Research and Technology, of which 385 people were selected as the sample population using the simple random sampling. The required data was collected from the sample population via a questionnaire. In the first-phase, data was analyzed through a single-sample t-test to identify the present condition of the parameters. The basis of the identification of the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats in the non-industrial research system of the IRI Army was the David's modeling and Improved David's Modeling. Then, using the TOPSIS technique, the type of current strategy of IRI Army was specified and new strategies were proposed. The results indicate that the present strategy is defensive and the most suitable strategy for reinforcing the non-industrial research system was determined to be achieved by enforcing the required infrastructures, improving and revising the processes, developing and publicizing the research culture, developing the committed human capital and supporting of the commanding system (top authorities) in order to generate new thoughts and transform IRI Army to a learning organization and finally getting a feedback.
Defensive Future Studies
Command and Staff University
2588-428X
1
v.
2
no.
2016
37
65
http://www.dfsr.ir/article_27250_71cc5b6ae08af464503ade59dbe10fce.pdf
Presenting a model of deploying portable missile systems in futuere wars by using game theory ang GIS in Kermanshah –Iran
Ali
Hanafi
استادیار اقلیم شناسی دانشگاه افسری امام علی (ع)
author
Ahmad
Lotfi
عضو هیئت علمی دانشگاه افسری امام علی (ع)
author
text
article
2016
per
This study aimed to introduce linear and Integer programming model of deployment of portable missile system as one of the most important and effective systems in upcoming wars that is probable in Kermanshah-Iran. There is no doubt that attacking missile systems will be one of the first targets for militant enemy forces. In fact, when the enemy is about to attack a moving missile systems and increase damages, Defense force in order to decrease them, seeks to settle the optimal number and the best type of installation of these systems against aggressive raids. To do the study, first some data were collected about efficient factors in settlement and deployment of portable missile systems by questionnaires and interviews with military and geography experts. To do the study, first some data were collected about efficient factors in settlement and deployment of portable missile systems by questionnaires and interviews with military and geography experts. Using Topography maps and digitizing them and ArcGIS software, a database was prepared and data weighting was done by AHP model. Then, using AHP and geospatial and non-geospatial data processing with ArcGIS, 22 points were identified to deploy missile systems. Finally, making and solving a mathematical model the gains of defense forces, damages of invaders and deployment of missile systems were specified.
Defensive Future Studies
Command and Staff University
2588-428X
1
v.
2
no.
2016
67
92
http://www.dfsr.ir/article_27253_42897a6eb7321185b93db6f7845e1153.pdf
The role of Converging technologies in promoting indigenous military power
Hamid
Karimi
استادیار دانشگاه علوم و فنون فارابی
author
Alireza
Einolghozati
دانشگاه عالی دفاع ملی
author
text
article
2016
per
According to the guidelines of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief on relying I.R.I on Build & Inner strength, this paper seeks to explain the role of those technologies which lead to improve indigenous military power with their convergence as one of components of multilateral deterrence power of I.R.I. In this case, according to data collected from the upstream and scholars’ viewpoints in various fields, the extracted indices were gathered based on descriptive and inferential statistics by using a mixed method study. A sample of 93 people was selected from the population of Supreme National Defense University Professors, members of Expediency Discernment Council, Parliament (Majlis) Research Center and some data about the factors and indicators of Indigenous military were collected from them. Then in the second phase data collection was done from 30 military experts about Converging technologies. The results of this study indicate that the use of converging technologies as critical technologies promote Military power, Security and anticipated threats as well as local industries in the production of automated and unmanned equipment leads to the promotion of the armed forces by utilizing virtual and simulated learning environments also leads to identify and protect of C.V.R.E and soldiers and warriors could better be much more preserved , Non-drug treatments boost the warriors’ performance and strengths dealing of the combat systems with terrorist attacks, and increase warriors’ ability against above problems.
Defensive Future Studies
Command and Staff University
2588-428X
1
v.
2
no.
2016
93
115
http://www.dfsr.ir/article_27257_dbacad9659c6ea00458156f84c5d0d1a.pdf
Futures studies of Policy-making for the development of offensive defense in the IRIAF for the first quarter of the 21st Century
Ali
Imani
استادیار دانشگاه فرماندهی و ستاد ارتش ج.ا.ا
author
Kumars
Ahmadi
استادیار دانشگاه آزاد واحد سنندج
author
text
article
2016
per
Futures studies, as one of human’s undeveloped potentialities help us to decrease doubts. The air power of the world’s hegemonic systems has made it possible to implement their dominance over independent countries in the corners of the world by using their tactical air units. Therefore, in order to oppose this hegemony, the policy-making for the development of the tactical air units, the recognition of the national and international environment and facing the air threats, strengths, weaknesses and the opportunities of the tactical units are analyzed. For this purpose, this paper explains the policy-making for the development of the offensive defense of the Air Force tactical units to empower them in the 21st century and offers the necessary strategies according to its tangible consequences. The research method is descriptive and the research population is the IRI Air Force tactical air units. According to experts, from studying of the documents and the experiences obtained from the performance of the tactical air units during 8-year Holy Defense and studying of the wars during the last three decades in the neighboring countries, it has been concluded that the formulation of principal policies suitable for the regional and beyond regional threats is necessary and indispensible for empowering the Air Force tactical units. The executive policies for the development of offensive defense relying on the important categories of air power such as manpower, equipment, assets and the command system is the significant result of this research.
Defensive Future Studies
Command and Staff University
2588-428X
1
v.
2
no.
2016
117
141
http://www.dfsr.ir/article_27258_27b0f5ef138a256d9c53e6d1dd1c0920.pdf
Compilation military Strategies for Future Wars with Focus on Hybrid Warfare
Fatolah
Kalantary
مرکز تحقیقات راهبردی دفاعی
author
text
article
2016
per
Hybrid Warfare includes a wide range of different types of wars such as common abilities, disordered strategies, excessive violence, and criminal disturbances which are coordinated by governments. The main purpose of this paper is to provide the micro and macro strategies of the possible future wars, with the emphasis on Hybrid warfare. This study has been done with the mixed method (descriptive and analytic method and grounded theory) and it is developmental-practical kind. Data were collected by field research. The statistical population includes 47 people which has been analyzed by practice research method. 10 cases of strength, 8 cases of weakness, 5 cases of opportunity, and 5 cases of threat were found. According to the acquired strategic position, the condition of Armed forces of Islamic Republic of Iran is favorable in possible future war and they are positioned in the first quarter, which is the path of small invasion. According to SWOT model, there were 7 micro strategies that after compounding with the 5 strategic, fundamental and important features of future war, 4 macro strategies were extracted and finally 10 proper suggestions are provided. Two scenarios (the first and the fourth ones) were conceived for Iran from the four predicted ones: The combination of remote control and Swamp wars.
Defensive Future Studies
Command and Staff University
2588-428X
1
v.
2
no.
2016
143
162
http://www.dfsr.ir/article_27259_8a69d5be6a7f8be38bcca81bf1cddda0.pdf